Breaking Down the Lyle Overbay Trade
While Daron Sutton has said in his web log that he thinks Doug Melvin and Gord Ash again improved the franchise with this deal, he of course failed to explain why he feels this way. It was this post that upset me so much (His failure to explain why), that prompted me to question his post. While Daron never emailed me or responded to my questions, many loyal Daron Sutton fans were quick to jump to his defense. OK, I’m done venting.
Below are numbers for the last two years of two players. One was given his pink slip and one was welcomed into Milwaukee as part of the Lyle Overbay
trade. Examine these numbers and try to determine who has been a more serviceable hitter over the last two seasons:
Player |
G |
AB |
H |
HR |
RBI |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
A |
84 |
221 |
50 |
4 |
23 |
.226 |
.316 |
.326 |
.642 |
B |
157 |
227 |
49 |
4 |
23 |
.216 |
.283 |
.344 |
.627 |
I guess if you want to say player A is slightly better than player B, I would say that is okay. The point here is that there really isn’t much difference between the two ballplayers.
When Chris Magruder (Player B) refused being designated for a minor league assignment on October 14th of last year, he became a free agent. This, I felt, opened the door for Corey Hart and Nelson Cruz to make this year’s club. When Gabe Gross (Player A) was thrown into the Lyle Overbay trade, it got me confused. To this day, I’m not sure what Melvin was thinking here.
We let a switch-hitting utility outfielder go only to get his left-handed equal in the trade. With Carlos Lee, Geoff Jenkins, and Brady Clark as roster locks, depending of whether Ned Yost goes with 4 or 5 outfielders, one or possibly two of the following three players will not be on the opening day roster (Gabe Gross, Corey Hart, Nelson Cruz).
I know we received 3 players for Overbay (I’ll get to the two pitchers shortly); I just felt it was important to realize that so far, we received a player who appears to be no better than the caliber of Chris Magruder which we released last fall.
When Zach Jackson’s name appeared as part of the Overbay trade, not too many eyebrows in Milwaukee were raised. He is not even a part of the Brewers 40-man roster. In two years in the Blue Jays farm system, he managed to advance all the way up to the AAA level. I’m not sure how impressive that is because we don’t know if his advancement was performance earned or if it was due to injuries and warm bodies were needed in the higher minors. Anyway, Yost has said that he feels Jackson could be Major league-ready by midseason. My question is, “Ready for what?” Adam McCalvy calls the 22 year old left-hand throwing Jackson
intriguing, at 6’5” and 220 pounds. Remember all the rage about Jorge De La Rosa? Granted, De La Rosa is down in Mexico this off-season working on his control. He could still become what we all had hoped for. I don’t think we can have higher expectations for Jackson.
Lastly, you have Dave Bush who is the only player (Based on his stats) to complete one full year at the major league level. His numbers are decent; his walk count is low which tells me he must have pretty good command. When Melvin said during the off-season that they were looking for a frontline starting pitcher, Bush was not the player he had in mind. I have read that 3 or possible 4 of the 5 starting pitchers for this year are already set with Ben Sheets, Doug Davis, Chris Capuano, and possibly Tomo Ohka. When Melvin signed Helling to a one-year deal, he said that Helling and Dana Eveland would be competing for the 5th starting spot which you know is only needed during long consecutive home or road stands, otherwise, 5th starters are merely long relief. Where does Dave Bush fit into this equation?
While I’m excited to see Prince Fielder play everyday at 1st base, as of today, I do not see that Doug Melvin and Gord Ash have improved this club with the Lyle Overbay trade. The prior deal that was on the table for Matt Clement would have helped us right away but Melvin asked the Red Sox to pay the majority of the 2 remaining years on Clements’ contract which is about $14 million. Rumor has it that Melvin is still talking with the Red Sox about Clement, we will have to wait and see if anything happens…
Very thorough breakdown. As I LISTEN to the Marquette game instead of watch it, I came across your analysis of the Overbay trade. I think you have to give Melvin and company the benifit of the doubt. The moves they've made so far have been great(Turnbow,etc.)and I' really believe that was the best thay could get or they wouldn't have pulled the trigger. By the way Marguette is kicking DePaul's butt in Chicago just like every other Wisconsin team does to Illinois(if someone brings up the Bears, I say fluke-fluke-fluke just like they're 13-3 record a few years back).
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I to was very unsure about the Overbay trade. I like the pitching that we got but Gross I have know idea whats up with that. The blue jays have 3 young catchers in their system that hit over 280 last season with the best being Brian Bormaster, with the lack of talent the crew has coming up through the system at this position couldn't we have snatched one of these players. I'm sure Melvin knows what he is doing but I am not a big fan of that part of the trade. I also think Nelson Cruz is going to be a stud and maybe should make room for him by trading Brady for a catcher or a solid starter. Mr. Beloit Snapper your going down in fantasy this year!
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I believe that we got quit a lot for Lyle Overbay. We ended up with a number 5 or 6 starter in Bush, a 22 year old young left-handed pitching prospect in Jackson, and a number 4 or 5 outfielder in Gross. However, I tend to agree with schanks about wishing we got one of the three Blue Jays catchers in their farm system in place of Gross in the trade. However I have complete respect for Melvin, and I am sure he got the best trade possible. We got three players who could contribute next year or later down the road for us; which also gives Melvin more maneuvering room money wise and player wise to sign or trade for a solid starting pitcher, perhaps Matt Clement. Who in baseball will end up with quality starting pitcher Jeff Weaver?
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We trade our first basemen who is a fan favorite for someone elses trash. If you think I am talking about Lyle Overbay you are wrong- sort of. Really I am thinking of Richie Sexson one of my all time favorites. At the time of that trade, it was very unpopular. An all star for a bunch of unproven or injury prone players. There was one player that people thought would help the Brewers. That was Jorge De la Rosa. The rest was expected to just fill holes until the studs in the minors were ready. Look at what really happened. Chris Capuano wins eighteen games. Overbay was unproven and then solidified first base for two years. Now he has brought over three more players. Junior Spivey holds down second and then is traded for Tomo Ohka. Craig Counsell did a nice job plugging short for a year. Chad Moeller; well..... In anycase, I think I will give Brewers management more time before I get too excited about the trade. I mean really, we got two pitchers who again, at least show some potential. The Brewers got them for a good player not a great one. As far as being critical about Magruder for Gross, I think Gross has a much higher ceiling for potential. Magruder was nothing more then a 220 hitter who offered little. His ceiling has been hit and it was't pretty. In fact, I believe he hasn't even found a job yet. I wish him the best. I find it kind of funny were being critical about our fourth or fifth outfielder in the middle of january. Gee I hope spring training gets here soon.
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Just one point to add here guys. Don't forget where Melvin and Yost are focused: building consistent, winning teams in Milwaukee. Not just for a run at the playoffs (i.e., getting Matt Clement) but one in the model of the Minnesota Twins, where they're in the discussion for contention every year.
And that requires first, having 25 solid major leaguers on your active roster and a deep, dependable 40 man roster.
Recall, it wasn't long ago that poor Enrique Cruz had to endure an entire season on the Brewers ACTIVE ROSTER as a Rule 5, just so the Crew could keep a decent AA-caliber player in their system.
That reeks of desperation. It's embarrassing.
But what we've seen with the Sexson deal, shipping Ginter, reacquiring Kolb, getting Koskie for almost nothing, shipping Overbay, finding then shipping Podsednik etc., are moves not from a team in desperation. Rather, they are a team who walks, talks and acts like a serious ballclub.
So while the analysis of Gross/Magruder is interesting, and the questions of Bush/Jackson are valid, we need to tip our hats to Yost, Melvin (and Attanasio!) for architecting a very promising 40 man roster.
So in the end, wht this Overbay trade does is continue that journey toward having a deeper, more talented team.
Acquiring healthy, young starting pitching like Bush and Jackson, for a position player?? Is really good value in my book. Gross is just a pet favorite of Gord Ash's, so let's see if he's right.
In the end, its a good deal that paves the way for '06 (Prince starting and Bush contributing) and increaes their chances of competing in '07 and '08 (maybe Jackson emerges?!)
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Last word on the Lyle trade. As a fan, I loved Lyle, but lets take a look at the numbers:
Brewers' first basemen in 2005
Posted:
Avg. AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI
.275 612 87 168 39 1 22 81
NL average
.280 611 88 171 37 2 27 95
Final analysis: Lyle was just below average in every offensive category, and quite a bit below in HR and RBI.
That's enough for me to say that it was a darn good deal for the Crew. I hope Lyle rakes in Toronto, but to get the value of Bush, Jackson and Gross for a below-average offensive (but WAY above average player in the clubhouse! :) player?
I like it.
Go Prince.
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Obviously, A start to the season like this could have never been predicted. But from what I have seen so far Gabe Gross is FARRRRR from the player Magruder was. For real analysis you would have to look at the entire season, but if Gross stays half as hot as he is right now It is a mamouth improvement from Mags.
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