By: Big Rygg

Chicago Cubs 
 2007 Record: 85-77
1st place in the NL Central

2007 Review

The Chicago Cubs lost a LOT of games in 2006 and management made a LOT of changes as a result. They spent a bunch of money on free agents and brought in a new manager after jettisoning Dusty Baker. The result in 2007? A 19-game improvement in the win column and a division title.

The Cubs started out very slow in 2007, but once they switched a couple of things around (like moving Alfonso Soriano from a failed experiment in CF to his more comfortable LF) and the rotation settled down, the Cubs were able to overcame a near double-digit games deficit to overtake the Brewers late in the year, finishing 2 games better. 

Comings and Goings

After so many additions in 2007, you wouldn't think the Cubs made a ton of moves this past offseason. You'd be right.

The biggest move that they made was signing Japanese star player Kosuke Fukudome, a free agent coming off an injury-shortened season in 2006 with the Chunichi Dragons. Kosuke was the league MVP in 2006 in Japan, hitting over .300, knocking in over 30 home runs, and plating over 100 RBIs. He will most likely provide a nice addition to the Cubs' lineup, especially since he bats left-handed.

The Rest of the Additions...

Jose Ascanio - RP
Alex Cintron - SS
Jon Lieber - SP

Those that left:

Cliff Floyd - OF
Jacque Jones - OF
Jason Kendall - C
Wade Miller - SP
Craig Monroe - OF
Will Ohman - RP
Angel Pagan - OF
Mark Prior - SP
Steve Trachsel - SP

25 Man Roster

Click here to see the Cardinals' 25 Man Roster. This will save space and reading time if you don't care.

Potential Starters

Here's the way I see the starting eight and five-man rotation as of opening day this season. This is not in batting order by any means.

C - Geovanny Soto
1B - Derrek Lee
2B - Mark DeRosa (ha ha!)
3B - Aramis Ramirez
SS - Ryan Theriot
LF - Alfonso Soriano
CF - Felix Pie
RF - Kosuke Fukudome
P - Carlos Zambrano
P - Ted Lilly
P - Rich Hill
P - Ryan Dempster (though I don't honestly know why)
P - Jason Marquis

Extras on Players

Derrek Lee is another season removed from his wrist injury, so he'll probably come closer to his 2005 output than he did last season. Also, Kosuke is the wild card here. He has absolutely no MLB track record coming into this game, so there is no telling what he'll be able to do. (By now, we do know that he went 3/3 with a 3-run home run in the bottom of the 9th inning today.)

X-Factor

The X-Factor here is whether or not late season and off season problems will carry over into this year. Jason Marquis and manager Lou Pinella had a public argument about whether or not Marquis would make the rotation this year. Zambrano, once he signed his big contract extension toward the end of last year, wasn't nearly as sharp as he was during the months leading up to the extension. Soriano broke a finger during spring training, so if that hampers him at all into another slow start, this Cubs lineup won't score nearly as many runs until he gets out of any slump. These things and more (along with the pressure of this being year 100) could add up to more than the fragile ego of Carlos Zambrano and the rest of the Cubs can handle.

2008 Predictions

Record: 87-75

I think that the additions of Fukudome and the eventual maturation of Geovanny Soto will be worth a couple more wins. I also don't expect such a slow start, nor such a strong finish to the season by the Cubs. I think they'll be a bit more consistent throughout the year and will ultimately end up with a couple more wins as a result.
 

Final Thoughts

It has to be mentioned because it is a reality and something that the Cubs will have to hear all year. It has been 100 years since the Cubs were World Champions of baseball. They've been to the playoffs several times since then (which in 100 years, you would think so), even reaching the World Series again, but haven't been able to close the deal in 99 tries.

A lot of national pundits have the Cubs winning the NL Central and some even have them winning the NL Pennant and the World Series as well. I think that the Cubs are media darlings, a bit, and that there is a romanticism with believing that 100 years will be the charm. Personally? 25 and 50 year anniversaries didn't do it for the Brewers, and 100 years won't do it for the Cubs.

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Agree/Disagree? As always, feel encouraged to leave comments.

By: Big Rygg

First of all, look for my late previews of the Scrubs and Brewers coming up soon.

That being said...

BREWERS WIN!!!

In an overly dramatic game, the Milwaukee Brewers survived a "punch-to-the-gut" 9th inning rally, after a rally of their own in the top half of the inning, to win on Opening Day in extra innings.

Surviving a couple of rain delays, Ben Sheets pitched 6 strong innings, shutting Chicago out and barely allowing any baserunners. What's more, in an ironic twist of fate, Carlos Zambrano had to leave the game early with an injury that was being reported as a strained forearm.

At the plate we had a stellar performance from Tony Gwynn Jr., and some late clutch hitting from Ryan Braun, Corey Hart and Craig Counsell.

Gwynn also had a game-changing play in centerfield which prevented a run earlier in the game.

Check Brewers.com for the final boxscore and statistics, but trust me that Gwynn had a fantastic all-around game.

Also having a strong game? Guillermo Mota and David Riske. Salomon Torres had a scoreless inning as well, though his wasn't nearly as clean.

My mind is running a mile a minute right now with a lot that I'd like to say, but there is no real structure behind any of it! Having said that, I'm going to sit down and watch the reply of the game here in about 30 mins while I work on the Cubs' and Brewers' previews.

But the bottom line today is a Brewer victory and the first of (hopefully) many days in 1st place in the NL Central.

By: Big Rygg

St. Louis Cardinals
 2007 Record: 78-84
3rd place in the NL Central

2007 Review

If you ask a lot of people about the 2007 St. Louis Cardinals, "overachieving" is a common theme that you'll be answered with. They lost their ace pitcher Chris Carpenter after one start to season ending surgery, Mark Mulder never really came back to form after his 2006 injury, team MVP Albert Pujols had an injury of his own that he played through, but it affected his numbers a bit, their offense got very old, very quickly in certain places and nothing seemed to click. Couple all that with the team having to deal with the tragedy of one of their own passing away...well, it's a true testament to Tony LaRussa's managerial skills that he was able to coax 78 wins and a 3rd place finish out of this ballclub.

That's not to say LaRussa didn't add to the distractions himself at all. He was arrested for DUI after being found passed out behind the wheel of his running SUV which, thankfully, happened to be stopped at a red light.

After all that, to be within 4 games of .500....wow. 

Comings and Goings

The most notable deal, (again, in my opinion) was the one that swapped third basemen Scott Rolen and Troy Glaus between the Cardinals and the Toronto Blue Jays. Rolen had well-documented issues with LaRussa that couldn't have not caused some sort of distraction of their own. Glaus brings plenty of oomph when healthy, despite falling quite short of Rolen's multi-Gold Glove defense. Regardless, the Hot Corner could be key this year for the redbirds.

The Rest of the Additions...

Matt Clement - SP
Cesar Izturis - SS
D'Angelo Jimenez - 2B
Jason LaRue - C
Kyle Lohse - SP
Josh Phelps - 1B
Ron Villone - SP
John Wasdin - SP

Those that left:

Gary Bennett - C
Russell Branyan - 3B
Miguel Cairo - 2B
Andy Cavazos - RP
David Eckstein - SS
Jim Edmonds - CF
Brian Falkenborg - RP
Randy Keisler - RP
Troy Percival - RP
John Rodriguez - OF
Kelly Stinnett - C
So Taguchi - OF
Kip Wells - SP
Preston Wilson - OF

25 Man Roster

Click here to see the Cardinals' 25 Man Roster. This will save space and reading time if you don't care.

Potential Starters

Here's the way I see the starting eight and five-man rotation as of opening day this season. This is not in batting order by any means.

C - Yadier Molina
1B - Albert Pujols
2B - Adam Kennedy
3B - Troy Glaus
SS - Cesar Izturis
LF - Chris Duncan
CF - Rick Ankiel
RF - Skip Schumaker
P - Adam Wainwright
P - Kyle Lohse
P - Braeden Looper
P - Todd Wellemeyer
P - Brad Thompson

Extras on Players

Albert Pujols has a legitimate elbow injury, one that medical experts say will eventually require surgery. Pujols, however, apparently doesn't listen to medical experts. The guy has been going absolutely crazy this spring so far. He's batting over .400 and showing plenty of power as well. With a healthy Glaus and a healthy-enough Pujols in the middle of the order, there may be some runs to score after all.

X-Factor

Trying to pick one X-Factor for the Cardinals was too tough for me. Could it be Pujols' elbow? How about Carpenter's on-going rehab and hopeful return mid-season? How about whether or not Jason Isringhausen has another solid year left in him? Can the middle infield of Izturis and Kennedy properly compliment the corners? How will the team react to the loss of human ShopVac Jim Edmonds in CF? Is there any residual tension in the locker room with LaRussa?

See my problem?

2008 Predictions

Record: 79-83
 

Final Thoughts

I believe that the Cardinals will hang tough in the Central for a lot of the season, but any injury to Pujols or the further thinning out of an already weak rotation, and this team could be in for a VERY long summer. There are only so many tricks in LaRussa's bag at the end of the day. Assuming everyone stays (and comes back) healthy, I think the Cardinals probably hang around for a while in the division, but key losses down the stretch will hurt them the most.

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Agree/Disagree? As always, feel encouraged to leave comments.

By: Big Rygg

Houston Astros
 2007 Record: 73-89
4th place in the NL Central

2007 Review

The 2007 Houston Astros were just three seasons removed from representing the National League in the World Series. The National League has a bit more competitive balance in it than does the American League, but to fall to 16 games under .500 in such a short time something drastic had to have happened. In the Astros' case, it's called transition. Gone are the days of the Killer Bs (the only remaining member is Lance Berkman). Gone are the days of a rotation so stacked that Roy Oswalt was the #3. Gone are the days of an NL Central Champion contender.

What was here, in 2007, were a few of pieces on offense that could add up to a winning combination in a few years. LF Carlos Lee, 1B Berkman and RF Hunter Pence lead the way for this Astros team that has added new starters at CF, 3B, SS, 2B and C...yes folks, that's all the other starting spots, but more on that later.

The Astros didn't score enough in 2007, but more than that they had a very hard time putting together quality outings from starting pitchers other than the aforementioned staff ace Oswalt.

Oswalt started 32 games, twirled a 3.18 ERA, but only won 14 games and somehow lost 7. Only one other regular starter for the Astros last year (Chris Sampson, 7-8) came within two games of being over .500...that's how bad their pitching was after Oswalt.

Therein lies the story of the Astros in 2007. Poor pitching led to a lot of losses that the offense couldn't make up for, including a team-worst 10-game skid between May 20th and May 30th. The 'Stros fell behind early in the standings and often in games and finished the regular season 9 games off their 2006 2nd place finishing pace. 

Comings and Goings

The biggest move for the Astros in the offseason, in my opinion, involved a coming and a going at the Closer spot. The Astros sent the oft-beleaguered Brad Lidge to the Philadelphia Phillies (in exchange for new CF Michael Bourne) and traded for 2007 NL Saves leader Jose Valverde then of the NL West Champion Arizona Diamondbacks.

There were a few other big name additions made by the Astros, but none should produce more immediately notable results as the change at closer.

The Rest of the Additions...

Geoff Blum - OF
Michael Bourn - CF
Doug Brocail - RP
Jack Cassel - SP
Alberto Castillo - C
Shawn Chacon - SP
Victor Diaz - OF
Darin Erstad - OF
Geoff Geary - RP
J.R. House - C
Kaz Matsui - 2B
David Newhan - OF
Chad Paronto - RP
Miguel Tejada - SS
Oscar Villareal - RP

Those that left:

Matt Albers - RP
Josh Anderson - CF
Craig Biggio - 2B
Eric Bruntlett - SS
Chris Burke - 2B
Adam Everett - SS
Juan Gutierrez - SP
Jason Jennings - SP
Mike Lamb - 3B
Trever Miller - RP
Orlando Palmeiro - OF
Chan Ho Park - SP
Chad Qualls - RP
Cody Ransom - SS
Luke Scott - OF

25 Man Roster

Click here to see the Reds' 25 Man Roster. This will save space and reading time if you don't care.

Potential Starters

Here's the way I see the starting eight and five-man rotation as of opening day this season. This is not in batting order by any means.

C - J.R. Towles
1B - Lance Berkman
2B - Mark Loretta (though Kaz Matsui will start once healthy, most likely)
3B - Ty Wigginton
SS - Miguel Tejada
LF - Carlos Lee
CF - Michael Bourn
RF - Hunter Pence
P - Roy Oswalt
P - Brandon Backe
P - Wandy Rodriguez
P - Shaun Chacon
P - Chris Sampson

Extras on Players

If this Michael Bourn is as good as some are suggesting he'll be, the Astros should have quite the good OF. Pence was a Rookie of the Year candidate until he got injured and missed roughly a month of time. All baseball fans, especially those of us in Milwaukee, know what Carlos Lee can do, and Bourn himself could compete for the ROTY this year if he performs as advertised.

Another thing to mention would be Tejada's inclusion in the Mitchell Report. Bud Selig doesn't appear to be handing out any penalties or whatnot based on the report, so maybe Tejada slides by on that. The real thing to pay attention to is whether or not his tailed off numbers last year were an anamoly or if they were becoming the norm.

X-Factor

The X-Factor for this club, to me, is first-year manager Cecil Cooper. There is enough talent on this ball club (offensively) to hang in a lot of games, and it might come down to whether or not proper and timely decisions are made by Cooper when dealing with his pitching staff and defense.

2008 Predictions

Record: 75-87
 

Final Thoughts

Can the culture in Houston change from one of Oswalt-and-Oh-no! to something resembling confidence in their chances to win more than once every five days? Backe, Rodriguez and Sampson (somewhat) are holdovers from last year's rotation. If they, along with retread Shaun Chacon, can't get it together, it won't matter what Roy Oswalt does...again. The most newsworthy thing coming out of Houston this year might wind up being the yearly trade rumors regarding Roy Oswalt. For the Brewers' sake? Sure...that'll work. For the sake of Houston fans, let's hope that at least the majority of talk is regarding youth and the future potential and not Tejada and his past (alleged) mistakes.

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Agree/Disagree? As always, feel encouraged to leave comments.

By: Big Rygg

Cincinnati Reds
 2007 Record: 72-90
5th place in the NL Central

2007 Review

The Cincinnati Reds were the victims of some of the worst bullpen play in the Major Leagues in 2007. I'll have to look up the stat to be sure, but I believe they lost an exorbitant amount of games that they were leading or ahead in the 7th inning. By "exorbitant", I mean that they lead the league. Their bullpen totaled 31 losses on the season but contributed to plenty more. It's kind of hard for your offense to come back if your bullpen continues to allow extra runs to score.

As for the rotation, Aaron Harang was once again very good, and while Bronso Arroyo's W-L record looks poor, it belies his overall effectiveness as well. He pitched very well in a lot of games, but kept himself in a bit too long in a lot of cases, figuring (probably correctly) that himself on empty was better than the majority of their bullpen with full tanks. That cost him some losses, but his overall ERA was only one-half run higher than Harang's. Arroyo compiled a 9-15 record in 2007. Harang's record? 16-6.

Offensively, the Reds were second only to the Milwaukee Brewers in total team home runs in 2007. They had seven different hitters belt at least 16 home runs, three of them hitting 30+. In fact, the trio of RF Ken Griffey, LF Adam Dunn and 2B Brandon Phillips accounted for 100 total home runs.

The biggest issue, of course, when you're basically only offense is that you can't always score more than they do.

Their biggest winning streak of the year was five games for the Reds, and their longest losing streak (like the Pirates) came late in September but totaled 7 games. They lost two of those late season games to the Cubs, also doing nothing in the way of assisting Milwaukee's efforts to pick itself back up after allowing the Cubs to overtake them.

The Reds finished with a meaningless victory on the last day of the season, bringing their drop off from 2006's finish to a total of 8 fewer wins.

Comings and Goings

The biggest acquisition by the Reds in the off-season is inarguable. When the Reds outbid Milwaukee to acquire 40-save closer Francisco Cordero, they could have just gotten themselves 10 more wins without breaking a sweat. I'll talk more about Cordero in my X-Factor section below, because he truly is. For now, however:

The Rest of the Additions...

Jeremy Affeldt - RP
Paul Bako - C
Josh Fogg - SP
Corey Patterson - OF
Andy Phillips - 1B
Edinson Volquez - SP
Craig Wilson - OF

Those that left:

Jorge Cantu - UTIL
Jason Ellison - OF
Eddie Guardado - RP
Josh Hamilton - OF
Eric Milton - SP
Kirk Saarloos - RP
*Several minor league free agents also left the organization*

25 Man Roster

Click here to see the Reds' 25 Man Roster. This will save space and reading time if you don't care.

Potential Starters

Here's the way I see the starting eight and five-man rotation as of opening day this season. This is not in batting order by any means.

C - David Ross
1B - Scott Hatteberg (though Joey Votto will get the majority of the playing time, I think)
2B - Brandon Phillips
3B - Edwin Encarnacion
SS - Alex Gonzalez
LF - Adam Dunn
CF - Corey Patterson
RF - Ken Griffey Jr.
P - Aaron Harang
P - Bronson Arroyo
P - Johnny Cueto
P - Josh Fogg
P - Edinson Volquez

Extras on Players

Keep an eye on Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez this year. These are two young starters (Cueto from the Reds' own system and Volquez having come over from the Rangers in the off-season trade involving Josh Hamilton) that have fairly solid "stuff". Obviously, starting pitching is important, but these two guys could have a major influence on things. If they have start effectively and help keep the bullpen fresh on their own days, they'll not only help Harang and Arroyo feel more comfortable about exiting the game when they're tired, but they may allow for a bit more confidence by the other 23 men on the roster. Perhaps the mood will change from "we've got a chance two days in a row and then we need to pray for a half-week" to "let's score some runs and see if we can win more often than we lose".

It'll be a culture change in Cincinnati, but the bottom line is that if Dusty Baker doesn't make them throw their arms off, they've both supposedly got the stuff to give that idea a run for it's money.

X-Factor

As I mentioned, the X-Factor for the 2008 Cincinnati Reds (and quite probably the 2009, 2010 and 2011 Cincinnati Reds) is closer Francisco Cordero.

Yes, the Reds brought in another guy with closing experience in the person of Jeremy Affeldt, and while he'll most likely support the 8th inning and primarily man the 7th, the only way that any of it matters is weather or not the Reds' bullpen can lock down games. The Cordero signing allows for that.

By moving effective if not spectacular closer (33 saves in 38 chances in '07) to a setup role, the Reds believe that they can consistently get the ball to Cordero. If they're going to have a shot at really increasing their win total, they can only hope that their beliefs are well-founded.

Then again, Cordero's record at Great American Ballpark last year? 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA, 2.10 WHIP and a .429 batting average against. Granted, that was against the Reds' potent lineup, but there are plenty of strong offenses that Cordero will have to face at home this year.

2008 Predictions

Record: 81-81

I gave the Reds probably too much credit during last year's predictions, and I believe that they were hampered by not only a terrible bullpen but probably a little bit of bad luck as well. That being said, there are a lot of question marks this year. I believe the Cueto and Volquez have the talent to stay competative all season (barring injury, of course), but that doesn't mean that the rest of the league will believe that assessment.

I also do fully believe that for at least this season Francisco Cordero will be a big boost to the Reds' win total. I'll reassess year by year, of course, but this year shouldn't be a problem for him...if he can get his ERA under control in all parks not named Miller, that is.
 

Final Thoughts

I know that a lot of pundits have picked the Reds to finish 2nd in the NL Central behind the Chicago Cubs and in front of the Milwaukee Brewers. Personally? I don't see how that works. I think that the Reds will finish 3rd (maybe 4th depending on the Astros). I'm no "professional" at any of this by any means, but how does two or three significant changes warrant the 17-game increase that SI.com has they pegged for, for example?

Cincinnati should be improved, but in my opinion they won't be as improved as some want to think. Give this rotation a couple of years (assuming Baker doesn't blow out the new young pair of arms that he has been handed...see Wood, Kerry and Prior, Mark) and maybe they'll compete for the division crown once again. But in 2008? Sorry Cincy. It's just not gonna happen.

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Agree/Disagree? As always, feel encouraged to leave comments.

By: Big Rygg

Pittsburgh Pirates
2007 Record: 68-94
Last place in the NL Central

2007 Review

In their defense, the Pittsburgh Pirates did improve on their 2006 record. However, they didn't improve a whole heckuva lot. They finished one game better. At that rate they'll break the 90-win barrier in 2029........that's a long way off.

The Pirates' longest losing streak (though they had streaks of 8 and 7 games as well) was a lengthy 9-gamer in September. They lost three games to the Cubs during the stretch which didn't help the Brewers at all. Save for back-to-back wins against the Diamondbacks on September 25th and 26th, they would've lost 15 straight to end the year.

Their best winning streak was a mere 5 games which they only accomplished once. Between April 22nd and April 27th, they beat the Dodgers once, swept Houston in a three game series and beat Cincinnati in the first game of a weekend set. They did have a handful of four-game winning streaks, but the fiver was their best in '07.

Comings and Goings

Last year I wrote about the Pirates' biggest off-season acquisition who was in the form of 1B Adam LaRoche. This year? Well, when your biggest-name acquisition is...um...Doug Mientkiewicz, maybe...yeah, let's just move on.

There were a couple of notable departures, however. Salomon Torres, the over-worked relief pitcher that actually began 2007 as the Pirates' closer, was traded to Milwaukee for some minor league players. Thanks, Pittsburgh!

The Rest of the Additions...

Hector Carrasco - RP
Elmer Dessens - RP
Casey Fossum - RP
Chris Gomez - SS
Byung-Hyun Kim - SP
Luis Rivas - 2B
Jorge Velandia - IF
Jaret Wright - SP

Those that left:

Tony Armas - SP
Jose Castillo - 3B
Shaun Chacon - SP
Humberto Cota - C
Brad Eldred - 1B
Cesar Izturis - SS
Matt Kata - RP
Don Kelly - UTIL
Dan Kolb - RP
Marty McLeary - RP
Josh Phelps - 1B
John Wasdin - RP

25 Man Roster

Click here to see the Pirates' 25 Man Roster. This will save space and reading time if you don't care.

Potential Starters

Here's the way I see the starting eight and five-man rotation as of opening day this season. This is not in batting order by any means.

C - Ronny Paulino
1B - Adam LaRoche
2B - Freddy Sanchez
3B - Jose Bautista
SS - Jack Wilson
LF - Jason Bay
CF - Nate McLouth
RF - Xavier Nady
P - Ian Snell
P - Tom Gorzelanny
P - Paul Maholm
P - Matt Morris
P - Zach Duke

Extras on Players

The only two differences between this list and last year's list (other than a reordering of the rotation) are that Tony Armas is gone from the team (having been replaced by Matt Morris whom the Pirates traded for during 2007) and that Freddy Sanchez is listed as the starting 2B. Castillo started 2B last year because Sanchez was hurt to start the year.

Therein lies my biggest concern with this team...they barely did anything to try to improve on a division-worst 68 wins.

X-Factor

Is there one? If anything this team's successes and failures will come down to their ability to produce runs. They've got a decent enough top of their rotation in Snell, Gorzelanny and Malholm. Morris is basically over the hill. If Zach Duke could regain part of the form he showed in 2005, this team would look a lot better still.

Having said all that, they'll need to produce runs to compete with anyone on most nights. Former All-Star Jason Bay had a down year and I think the team's performance as a whole reflected those struggles. If he rebounds, maybe the Pirates have a shot at 70 wins.

2008 Predictions

Record: 62-100

As I mentioned before, the Pittsburgh Pirates did nothing in the offseason to attempt to improve their ballclub. So why the fall back to becoming MLB's first 100-game losing ballclub since 2006? Well, the other teams in the division all improved themselves in certain areas, as did most other teams in baseball. Pittsburgh did not. If your opponents, you know those pesky teams that directly influence how many games you win, all get better and you don't...how would it be safe to assume that you'd do the same let alone better?

It wouldn't be.
 

Final Thoughts

It was my opinion last year, and it holds true today...the Bucs aren't close yet. In all fairness, they've probably regressed. Their young pitching is starting to come of age a bit more, and a lot of their limited success will ride on the arms of Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny. Unfortunately, those two (and maybe Paul Maholm), can't pitch complete games every other day...and even if they could, Pittsburgh still needs to find offense.

I'm still glad that the Pirates play in the Central.

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Agree/Disagree? As always, feel encouraged to leave comments.

By: Big Rygg

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ages (though if you're too young to be on the internet without your parents' permission, then shame on you!)...

...the Brewer Nation proudly brings to you it's 2008 National League Central Season Preview Series!!!!!!!!!!!!

This has been about as delayed as anything ever, but with the perfectly-timed (even if nice-looking) upgrades to MLBlogs coupled with my own procrastination (which was aided by the fact that I have a 13-week-old daughter)...well, it's been a long off-season after all.

So, without any further proscrastination, we shall hit these in reverse order of 2007 final standings (though I'll of course do the Brewers last).

For those of you unfamiliar with or forgetful about the final NL Central standings from 2007, here is the order in which you'll see these posts:

1. Pittsburgh Pirates (68-94)
2. Cincinnati Reds (72-90)
3. Houston Astros (73-89)
4. St. Louis Cardinals (78-84)
5. Chicago Cubs (85-77)
6. Milwaukee Brewers (83-79)

I'll be compiling the reports and will be posting them one at a time at somewhat irregular intervals, but hopefully with enough time in between so that people have a chance to check them out and comment or whatever.

Look for Pittsburgh tonight (well, tomorrow morning actually here in Wisconsin by the time I get it posted). After that, I was going to try to put down intervals, but when I try to hit an absolute deadline on these posts, something usually comes up. When I have a loose deadline, things tend to flow more easily. Thank you, Mr. Murphy.

Check back in a little while for...

SPS - Pittsburgh Pirates

By: Big Rygg

I know it was promised that I would break down the Vargas situation, but I've been locked out of the site for the past two and a half days. I don't know why I can get back in now, but I won't complain.

Look for this year's Season Preview Series to commence tomorrow! It looks like three teams per day to get them all in, but I'll make it happen!

As for Vargas, by now most everything has been said. Sorry about that. If anyone wants my opinions, comment on this post and I'll make sure to say something formal about it at another time.

In a somewhat shocking move today, the Milwaukee Brewers released pitcher (and starting rotation candidate) Claudio Vargas.

Look for analysis and breakdown of this deal by our own Big Rygg later today.

By: Big Rygg

"This is why you have seven or eight guys instead of five guys." - Assistant GM Gord Ash

It's interesting how things work out sometimes. In a spring where our Milwaukee Brewers entered camp with eight viable arms for the five-man starting rotation, we now stand on the precipice of the season with only six healthy options.

It had long been a health-contingent lock that Ben Sheets, Jeff Suppan and Yovani Gallardo would make the rotation. Well, that contingency jumped up and bit Gallardo in the knee a little bit. He'll be okay (he's already pitched in a minor league game after being officially placed on the disabled list), but that's the true tight rope in professional athletics...all athletics really...injuries.

So, here we are. Sheets has been officially named as the Opening Day starter against the Scrubs in Chicago on March 31st. Suppan will pitch game #2 on April 2nd. After that, Ned Yost has admitted that he doesn't know yet how the remainder of his rotation will shake out or shape up.

But we've now got four healthy options for those three non-Sheets, non-Soup starting slots. They are, in alphabetical order:

Dave Bush, Manny Parra, Claudio Vargas and Carlos Villanueva

But this post isn't about these four men. This post is about why we're down to four men for three slots. In case you haven't heard, Chris Capuano's elbow injury is officialy the worst-case scenario.

In what could have been a make or break start for Capuano anyway as he was in a dog fight for a spot in this year's starting rotation, Cappy tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing arm...again. Chris Capuano needs a second ligament replacement surgery. In more readily known terminology, Cappy needs "Tommy John" surgery again.

While this kind of surgery has become, unfortunately, quite "routine", an extremely low number of pitchers have come back from two of these surgeries. Fortunately, Chris Capuano has the mental makeup to be one of those pitchers. I'm no doctor, but I suppose the fact that he doesn't throw 95 MPH will help his cause, though I doubt that there's any substantial difference in the torque on your elbow between throwing 90 and throwing 95...maybe I'm just hoping for the best for Cappy. Even though I didn't think he deserved to be in this rotation based on the talent competing with him, I didn't want him out of the running due to an injury. I would never wish harm on anyone that doesn't wear a Cub uniform.

Okay, okay...I'm not that sadistic as to wish injury on them. But I don't exactly cry when it happens either.

But back to the point, Chris Capuano has two options. Surgery or a grueling three-month rehab that has a 20% chance of working. He chose surgery once before and chances are good that he'll do the same this time as it does give him the best chance at pitching again in the Major Leagues.

So, best of luck to Cappy as he embarks on another year of pain, rehab and mental anguish.

As for our rotation...let's hope the next decision as to who isn't going to make it gets to be made by Ned Yost and Mike Maddux instead of a doctor.

By: Big Rygg

Okay, so all of our starting pitchers are actually human.

In their most recent appearances, Manny Parra, Claudio Vargas and Chris Narveson all got knocked around pretty well. Hey, it had to happen eventually, right? Nobody carries an ERA under 1.00 for very long during the regular season. Yes, I know Vargas' wasn't that low before today, but Parra's (0.64) and Narveson's (0.57) were...so yeah.

Regardless of the current numbers, because everything resets to all zeroes in 9 short days.....

(By the way, these "short" days I just described? They are going to feel like an eternity...to me at least. But back to the point.)

......there are decisions that need to be made fairly soon as far as which 25 men will comprise the Milwaukee Brewers on March 31st.

Having been paying attention this spring as closely as I can with an infant daughter, here are my predictions, not necessarily in any order:

Starting Rotation (5)
Ben Sheets, Jeff Suppan, Carlos Villanueva, Dave Bush, Claudio Vargas

Bullpen (7)
Eric Gagne, Derrick Turnbow, Guillermo Mota, David Riske, Salomon Torres, Brian Shouse, Seth McClung

Catchers (2)
Jason Kendall, Eric Munson

Infielders (6)
Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, Bill Hall, Craig Counsell, Joe Dillon

Outfielders (5)
Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Tony Gwynn Jr, Gabe Kapler, Gabe Gross

DL (3)
Yovani Gallardo, Chris Capuano, Randy Choate (who would go to AAA if healthy)

Suspended (1)
Mike Cameron

Obviously some things will change on this list, possibly as early as mid-April, but no later than after the game on Sunday, April 27th (our 25th game of the year). When Gallardo is ready to come back to the starting rotation, a decision will have to be made. I'd personally hope that they'd have a taker for Claudio Vargas by then. Otherwise, you have two options with the roster as I have it constructed. Either send Dave Bush down to AAA or hope Seth McClung clears waivers so that you can bump either Bush or Vargas (whoever is pitching worse) to the bullpen. I suppose a technical option would be to send Villanueva down to AAA, but I don't think that's a real option because he is one of our five best starters and needs to stay in that rotation as long as he's healthy, in my opinion.

Also, when Mike Cameron returns there will be another decision to make. Personally, I think that the best option at that point will be to send Gabe Gross down to AAA to keep him getting consistent playing time. We'll want to keep Tony Gwynn for his pinch-running, the fact that he's a lefty, and his intangibles like leading off when Rickie Weeks has the day off and things like that. Kapler, I have a feeling, will be playing well enough to keep his spot, even though he's on a non-guaranteed contract.

And the third wrinkle comes in the form of Chris Capuano. Capuano injured the elbow on his throwing arm, and when the pain didn't subside in a couple of days he had an MRI performed. The Brewers aren't releasing any results from it until their head trainer William Raasch examines Capunao in person. That doesn't sound like a good situation, hence my belief that he'll start the season on the DL. How long he is on the DL remains to be seen, but worst-case scenario... All I'm going to say is that Cappy's left elbow has been operated on before.

As far as his affecting the big-league rotation, I don't expect that to be as much of an issue. Even if he will recover fairly quickly from whatever is wrong with him, he'll be on a minor league rehab assignment for some time after that.

...

Let me say one thing quickly here at the end before I ask you for your opinions...I could definitely see Manny Parra winning the rotation spot with Carlos Villanueva being sent to AAA so that there is a lefty in our rotation. I could also see Yost wanting Villanueva in the bullpen, where he pitched so well during much of 2007, but Villanueva deserves to be a starter...a position which he admittedly prefers.

In a perfect world, Parra and Villanueva would make this rotation and pitch as well all season as they have this spring. But, I'm a realist in that I understand that Vargas is out of options (along with having pitched very well before today) and Bush is one of Yost's guys (along with throwing strikes and being a safe bet for double-digit victories).

---

But, as I alluded to earlier...let's here your thoughts, Brewer Nation. Who do you have on your 25-man roster to start the year? How do you handle the eventual returns to Cameron and Gallardo?

By: Big Rygg

We all know not to put too much stock in Spring Training numbers, but the fact remains that your Milwaukee Brewers are currently tied in the loss column for the best total in the Cactus League at 7. The Brewers also have the best overall record of any NL team in the Cactus League (tied with the Mets overal for NL teams).

So...what does this mean? The easy answer is: not much. After all, we've played a lot of games against teams from the American League that we won't play during the regular season. Having said that, winning twice as much as you lose is still a nice feeling.

But there comes a time when it would be nice if all of our pitchers would contribute to these wins instead of a lot of the effort coming from two guys that (for some reason) still aren't sure whether or not they'll be suiting up in Chicago on March 31st.

Ned Yost is on the record as saying that the off day kind of provides the gap between segments of Spring Training. He said that prior to the off day guys are primarily working on the physical aspects of the game; in other words: getting their bodies ready to endure the grind of 162 regular season games. Then, according to Yost, after the off day comes the real ramping up of the mental part of the game (especially for pitchers).

Eric Gagne has said things that support this theory as well. He has said that he's been working on his pitch location and controling his breaking pitches up until this point, but that starting tonight it's time to start thinking about counts, situations and basically getting hitters out.

Personally, I think this is one time when Ned Yost couldn't be more right. I just hope that the roster is on the same page and also that it means more results. I think it's pretty obvious that our offense is close, but our pitching needs to catch up in a hurry...especially if Manny Parra and/or Carlos Villanueva don't break camp in the rotation.

By: Big Rygg

Just a quick note...

So many writers have a "News and Notes" stand by article that I didn't want to call this post that overused title. If anyone can think of something other than what I threw up in two seconds, please feel free to contribute your ideas for consideration in the comments section.

---

After having completed my fairly lengthy article regarding the open spots in the Brewers' starting rotation and the competitors thereto, Chris Capuano has to go and tweak his elbow. Of all the low-down, dirty things that a professional athlete could do to a writer, I should just drive down to Arizona and...

Of course, I'm kidding around, but the news about Capuano could be some serious repercussions as it relates to the shake out of the aforementioned rotation.

Management has made it clear (and I use that term because I can't remember if both Ned Yost and Doug Melvin have said it on record, but I know at least one of them has and can't remember for sure which one) that their ideal rotation would have a left-handed starter. Does this give another edge to the already pitching-out-of-his-mind Manny Parra? You'd tend to think so.

The other question to ask right now is how serious is this tweaking? Is the injury severe enough that it would allow Yost to place Capuano on the DL, thereby saving one of his guys from the demotion to the minors and allowing him to do what he should do without having to bruise Capuano's ego?

It's becoming more and more obvious that Yost wants to give "Cappy" and "Bushie" every chance so that he can find a way to justify putting them both into the rotation. The unfortunate backfiring is that Cappy hasn't pitched very well yet this spring for any substantial length of time. Bush appears to have leveled off and finally seems to be improving, but when will the questions about Jeff Suppan begin to gain steam?

Suppan had another rough outing this afternoon, and it sporting a ERA for the spring of over 11.37! Folks, you all know if you read this blog fairly often that I'm one of the last people to get concerned over much of anything that happens in Spring Training outside of the injury report, but there comes a time when Suppan has to show that he's capable of dialing it up and sitting some hitters down. Yes, Derrick Turnbow and Eric Gagne had bad days too, but closer-types are a different breed. I truly believe that the mindset of those types of guys is very different during the season.

Bottom line on Suppan, there are only a couple of starts left for him to get it in gear. He said that today's goal for himself was to work in a cut fastball. Well, okay then. Can the goal next time be to keep him WHIP closer to 1.00 than 2.00? Maybe a goal could be to get that ERA under 10.00? Maybe we could even aim high and shoot for under a run an inning?

Look, I know that Suppan is an important part of this staff and that we need his September 2008 to resemble his September 2007, but would it be too much to ask for our #2 pitcher (if in title only) to maybe have 12 wins by the time September starts? Suppan went 4-1 in six September starts last year to finish with a personal won-loss record of 12-12. He started 34 games last season. If he could keep up his September average throughout the entire season, he'd win 22 games. Yeah, that's a bit ambitious, but winning 12 of your first 28 starts isn't asking too much.

---

Look for another set of notes in a day or two honoring the request of one of our most loyal contributors Aaron, by discussing Luis Peña and Chris Narveson. I just don't have time to do it tonight.

And don't forget to keep it here for Brewers baseball discussions, but head over to Sports Nation to find out about other sports that South Side Rob and I follow. See the post below for more information.

by South Side Rob

Many people have been asking and tonight, the launch of Sports Nation has finally occurred. This blog will continue but at Sports Nation, there will be many writers. I've already extended an offer to the BigRygg which I'm looking forward to read. Sports Nation covers all sports pro, college, and even amateur levels. While BigRygg knows his baseball, he really knows his NFL football.

I've also invited Kyle to jump on board with us. Kyle has a lot to say. Sometimes, it's very hard to get a word in when I'm talking to him live (just kidding). He loves baseball and I expect to see some great stuff.

I have a few other friends I'd like to have contribute but their hectic schedules may make it difficult for them to write often (Roseee and Dave).

Thanks to all for helping us keep the Brewer Nation alive and kicking. Come and check out Sports Nation and let me know if you would like to contribute more than just comments.

I don't like to admit this but I have a nephew that loves the Chicago Cubs. I was thinking about letting him write in the Sports Nation as well. I'll have to lay down the law with him if I do...

by South Side Rob

Being right about something that is bad for a team can be very frustrating. According to a recent article on Brewers.com, Ned Yost is trying to convince Doug Melvin that we need to start the season with 8 bullpen arms instead of 7.

I mentioned sarcastically that Ned Yost would love 10 arms in the bullpen if he could get away it. Games in April will take near 3-1/2 hours as Yost turns into statistical matchup guru after the 5th inning of every game regardless of how close the game may be. This is bad for many reasons.

1. If games are not close, some relief pitchers (long relievers) can go a week or more without work which makes it very difficult to stay sharp.
2. When taking the ball from the starter and asking 3 or more relievers to be on their game is too much to ask. Constant bullpen moves were a large reason why games were lost late last season. The bullpen was burned out more because Yost was tinkering with match-ups. Starting pitchers were being pulled well before throwing 90 pitches.
3. Key late-inning pinch-hitters are no longer available on the bench because it was replaced in form of that extra arm in the bullpen. How many times last year did we run out of position players in extra-inning games were even a late-inning pinch-runner made sense? I can remember about 6 or 8 occurences. How many games were we out of 1st place? 2 games. Oh yeah, Yost went into Spring Training blaming our defense, I forgot about that.

If you want 8 arms in the bullpen, you might as well go with a 4-man rotation. Paying Sheets and Suppan 10+ million dollars this season for throwing 70-80 pitches per start is a complete waste of payroll. I do realize that McClung has had a nice Spring but Yost rather have extra arms than bats. Simmons and Melvin have to step up here and set Yost straight. Also, Melvin knew this was a problem heading into camp. Perhaps Melvin over-valued his arms this off-season rather than making a few moves so that this did not become a problem. Does anybody remember Robin Yount being very vocal about having less options off the bench because of all the toys Yost had in his bullpen? Oh yeah, it was reported that Yount wanted to spend more time with his family which is no longer why he is our bench coach. Maybe he just wanted to be around smarter baseball people like his children.

People can line up, and post and tell me I'm wrong but you better come with a darn good reason because this (I believe) is very bad for this team heading into this season...

By: Big Rygg

Normally, I would wait and do my analysis of the Brewers' rotation when I do the entire team preview. (Yes, by the way, I will be doing a team-by-team analysis of every team in the NL Central once again. Look for those to start next week sometime, probably late in the week.) However, all of this ranking that we've been doing, and the fact that there is an open competition on the Brewers this year makes we want to tackle in on it's own in a special blog.

Welcome to said special blog.

Let's get the formalities out of the way: Ben Sheets will start on Opening Day, March 31st, against the hated Chicago Scrubs in the dump that is Wrigley Field. It's not even worth going there, even "just to see it once before it falls down and/or they change the name", until the ivy is green and filled in. Even then, it's a stretch...but I digress.

Sheets will start Opening Day, Jeff Suppan will throw in Game 2 on April 2nd, and (if he was healthy) Yovani Gallardo would handle Game 3 on the 3rd of April. Now, having said all that, this is where it becomes muddied in Ned Yost's eyes.

On the Brewers' 40-man roster, there are eight (8) starters to fit into five (5) slots in the rotation. In case any Scrub fans read this blog, 8-5=3 (you know, just 97 less than the # of years it's been since your team won a World Series). That match means that three starters won't be in the rotation. Further math indicates that 5-2=3. The three in that equation accounts for Sheets and Suppan (I would've done 5-3 = 2, but Gallardo will probably start the season on the 15-Day DL).

So, putting it all together means that there are really five pitchers vying for three spots right now. These pitchers, in alphabetical order by last name are:

• Dave Bush
• Chris Capuano
• Manny Parra
• Claudio Vargas
• Carlos Villanueva

Allow me to analyze each player and tell you whether or not I believe that they should be in the rotation and also whether or not I believe that they will be in the rotation. As we all should know by now, should and will are too VERY different words to Ned Yost.

DAVE BUSH - 2007 Record: 12-10, 186.1 IP, 5.12 ERA
One of the best ways to discuss Dave Bush is to start with his K/BB ratio of 134/44 and to mention that he led the team in strikeouts as well.

I'll put this into some perspective for you. Carlos Villanueva (while doing most of his pitching from the bullpen) threw 72(!) fewer innings than Bush, and still walked 9 more batters than Bush did. Sure, if Ben Sheets had the innings, he probably would've eclipsed Bush in strikeouts, but Sheets is the Ace of the staff...Bush was the #4 man last year to start off with. Bottom line, Bush throws strikes.

What Bush also does, unfortunately, is tend to have one bad inning in a given start. His M.O. is that he struggles in his first inning of work. This is supported by the fact that Bush had an 8.13 ERA in his first inning of his 31 starts. He gave up 48 hits in those 31 innings along with 7 of his walks for a 1st inning WHIP of 1.77. His overall WHIP on the year? Only 1.40. Still a bit above where you'd like a pitcher, but you can see how his first inning woes skewed his numbers a little.

But therein lies the quandary with one David Thomas Bush: How do you get him through the first inning unscathed? And can he be an effective contributor a rotation if he exerts so much energy in so early in the game? For back-to-back seasons of 12 wins and the potential for more this year (especially against other teams' fifth starters), I say he deserves a shot.

CHRIS CAPUANO - 2007: 5-12, 150 IP, 5.10 ERA
Chris Capuano is a former All-Star. Chris Capuano is a former 18 game winner. Chris Capuano might not have a place on the Brewer roster in 2008, let alone in the rotation.

Ned Yost has made it abundantly clear that if two pitchers do similar jobs in Spring Training this year, then past performance and successes could be the deciding factor in who gets a starting gig. Well, while we all know that Capuano didn't have much success in 2007 overall, we also know that he did start out 5-0 before having a liner back at him apparently mess with his head again like it did in the second half of the 2006 season. (Note: Cappy had a liner hit off his leg today in a game against the Seattle Mariners. He wound up giving up 5 unearned runs in his 4 innings of work. Not sure how many came after the liner, but I'd like to find out.)

When Chris Capuano won 18 games in 2005, and then only won 11 in 2006, his overall numbers were very similar:

2005 - 18-12, 3.99 ERA, 219.0 IP, 176 K
2006 - 11-12, 4.03 ERA, 221.0 IP, 174 K

In fact, in 2006, he actually gave up 44 fewer walks than in 2005, while also giving up less home runs (29 to 31).

Make no mistake about it. Cappy had all the run support you could ask for in 2005, and not nearly as much in 2006. Of course there were other situations that affected his win total too, but the bottom line is that the two years, Cappy was extremely consistent.

But that takes us to 2007. Cappy started off white-hot, blistering the opposition to the tune of five wins in seven starts, and an ERA sitting at a stellar 2.31. Over the course of his next three starts, he gave up 4, 6 and 4 ER each in 4.0, 5.1 and 4.0 IP. He lost all three games. In fact, Capuano wouldn't win another game all year, appearing 22 consecutive times in games which the Brewers lost. That number too, however, doesn't completely tell the story.

Cappy's 11th and 12th starts of the season were quality starts of 7.0 IP and 2 ER in each. He even struck out 10 in his June 2nd start against the Florida Marlins. His offense, on the contrary, 1 and 2 runs in those starts. For the record, after Capuano's 7th start of the year, he went four straight starts in which the Brewer offense mustered one run each. That's not supporting your pitcher very well at all.

But, as we move on to 2008, Capuano still appears stuck in a bit of his '07 rut. His first appearance in Spring Training produced a 9.00 ERA thanks to 2 ER in his 2 IP. Appearance #2 was worse, with Cappy giving up 6 ER in just 2.0 IP. And today's outing, Cappy gave up another 5 runs (though be they unearned) in just 3.2 IP.

With the harsh numbers in 2007 aside, is what Cappy is doing now in Spring Training going to be enough to get him a job in the starting rotation? No. Can he turn it around this millennium? Absolutely, but he needs to relax a little and just let it come. I think he got so frustrated at all the 22-appearances-in-Brewer-losses talk in the media that he's pressing right now, trying too hard to be perfect. In all fairness, I haven't seen him pitch this year yet, but to hear/read that he starts off okay and then blows up in his last inning of work, it's either the pressing theory, or Capuano might need to get his head in the game. If he knows he's coming out at a certain time, maybe he loses focus. I do remember him saying on more than one occasion last year that he lost focus during a game.

And if he doesn't make the rotation (which he's doing a fine job of pitching himself out of), he's basically useless in the bullpen. In his four appearances out of the 'pen last year, he pitched a total of 15.0 innings, allowing 17 H and 7 ER. That ERA is actually better than his full-season ERA, but do note that in those 15.0 IP, he served up 5 HR. That's just not acceptable out of your bullpen if you're going to be a championship caliber team.

MANNY PARRA - 2007 MLB Stats: 0-1, 26.1 IP, 3.76 ERA
A former 26th round draft pick by the Brewers in 2001, Manny Parra is a southpaw, strikeout pitcher with pretty darn good stuff. He is getting to the majors as late as he is (if you can count 25 years old as being late) because of some injuries.

Parra was promoted to AA Huntsville back in 2004. He went on the DL in 2005 with a shoulder injury which required arthroscopic surgery. Prior to going on the disabled list that season, he went 5-6 with a 3.96 ERA. In his five wins, he had 0.82 ERA. He also struck out 10 batters twice that year. 2006 for Parra started back with single A Brevard County, before eventually re-earning his promotion to Huntsville. He combined for a 4-3 record with a 2.93 ERA, going 3-0 with a 2.87 in six AA starts.

All that, of course, was building to 2007. He started the year in Huntsville, eventually earning a promotion to AAA Nashville. He responded to that increased level of competition by twirling a perfect game on June 25th in just his second AAA start. He was promoted to the majors on July 16th, making his first appearance on the 20th of that month. While with the big club, he threw 26.1 innings and recorded 26 strikeouts.

His 2007 season was cut short when he broke his thumb on a bunt attempt against Chicago, but by then he had begun proving that he could handle big league hitters. So far this spring, all Parra has done is amass a 1.00 ERA in 9 innings. He's struck out 8, walked only 1 and given up a total of 4 hits. The one run he did give up was a solo home run to A's slugger Jack Cust.

So, to reiterate a couple of points, Manny Parra strikes hitters out, doesn't give up many walks or hits, throws left-handed and is only 25 years old. Sounds like a lock for the rotation, right? Well, not so fast.

The issues probably preventing Parra's ascension to the Yost's rotation are two-fold. First, he only pitched 133 total innings last year between Double-A, Triple-A and Milwaukee. If he's in the rotation from day one, and stays there the whole year, he'll throw close to (if not over) 200 innings. That is a huge jump in innings and pitches for a guy with a surgically repaired throwing shoulder. It's probably best to gradually bring him along.

Second, and this isn't a fair reason if you're Manny Parra, but he has minor league options left. In order to properly protect the starting rotation in Milwaukee, you need a solid backup in AAA should one of your guys go down with an injury. Parra has options, and can most easily be sent to lead Nashville's rotation.

But wait...if he's so good, why wouldn't you want him in the big leagues? He'll pitch the same number of innings in a AAA start that he would in a MLB start, so how is that protecting him? Valid questions. Keep in mind, however, that in AAA it's easier to limit innings or to give a guy an extra day off, plus the competition is lesser. That means, hopefully, fewer pitches per inning than if he were with Milwaukee, thereby lessening the number of times he has to wind up and deliver.

Personally, I'd like to see Parra break camp in the rotation to cover Yovani Gallardo's spot until Gallardo is ready to come back from his knee injury. I think Parra gives us a better chance to win then the other men I think should be the odd one's out, so he should start those games in Gallardo's stead. He'll probably be coming up to Milwaukee later in the season even if he did start the year in AAA, so by starting him in Milwaukee first, you aren't wasting an option. But even if you were, he still gives the best chance to win those couple of starts that Gallardo is probably going to miss.

CLAUDIO VARGAS - 2007: 11-6, 134.1 IP, 5.09 ERA
I can't remember how many times Brian Anderson rightfully implied that Claudio Vargas was akin to legendary magician and escape artist Harry Houdini, but every time it was mentioned was right on. Vargas got into a lot of trouble in 2007, but always seemed to get out of it, leading to the comparison.

The other thing Vargas always seemed to do (usually a result of pitching into and then out of trouble) was have huge pitch counts early. This is why, while it's easier to quantify in our minds with innings pitched, a true measure of how much a pitcher has worked is pitch count.

Claudio Vargas threw a lot of pitches. In fact, Vargas threw so many pitches so often that he only pitched more than 5.0 innings in an appearance only 12 times all year, going over 6.0 IP only twice. He had only nine (9) "Quality Starts", in which he earned five (5) of his victories.

Like Chris Capuano in 2005, Vargas was the recipient of a lot of run support last year. Only once did the offense fail to score more than two (2) runs in a game, with 15 games of at least five (5) runs scored by the Brewers, including four double-digit run totals and two more in which they scored nine (9) runs! In June alone, a month where Vargas won all five of his starts, the team put up backing scores of 7, 9, 11, 7, 11 runs respectively.

What Vargas lacked in long starts and low pitch counts, he usually made up for with his ability to keep the team in games. Only five (5) times all year did he give up more than four (4) earned runs. And to get 11 wins and only six (6) losses from your #5 pitcher...almost any team in the majors would take that.

I've been saying for some time now that Claudio Vargas is the most tradeable commodity in our glut of starting pitching. Yes he can overwork a bullpen, but 11 wins is nothing to sneeze at, even if some serious run support took place in a lot of those wins.

I still believe that GM Doug Melvin will pull the trigger on a deal prior to the end of Spring Training, and I still think that it's probably Vargas that will get the most attention next to Dave Bush. I also still think that Vargas is the best option to keep in the bullpen out of these five starters. He pitches to contact, gets guys out and bears down when he's in a jam. He would be an above average long-man, with the chance to maybe come into the game in a jam-type situation if the rest of the bullpen has been overused.

Of course, muddying the waters on all of this was when Vargas decided to toss five hitless innings at the Seattle Mariners on March 9th. Save for one walk, it was five perfect innings. After a performance like that, one would have to think Vargas is making it even harder on Ned Yost to pick his rotation.

CARLOS VILLANUEVA - 2007: 8-5, 114.1 IP, 3.94 ERA
What couldn't Carlos Villanueva do for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2007? He began the year in Spring Training 2007 by pitching his way into the bullpen. He was good enough that he could have started, but having his five guys already set, Yost still decided that he needed Villanueva and sent him to the big league bullpen. This was after Villanueva made a two-level jump during 2006, starting games for Milwaukee after never having pitched higher than AA before.

Villanueva appeared in 59 games in 2007, only 6 of them being starts. No matter how you slice it, those 59 appearances were mostly positive. He could start a game, come in for one out, throw 4.0 innings in relief, make an emergency start the day after the Brewers were no-hit by Justin Verlander, pitch back-to-back days more than once, get a three-inning save in a blowout in Arizona...he was truly the definition of jack-of-all-trades for the 2007 Milwaukee Brewers. The thing was, all of his trades were pretty good.

Villanueva will tell you that he prefers starting, but will do whatever the club wants him to do (including starting the year in the AAA rotation to ensure depth, a la Manny Parra). The numbers back up Villanueva's assertion about a starting gig. In his six starts, he threw 35.0 innings, giving up only 8 ER for an ERA of 2.06! All he's done this spring in starter-like atmospheres is toss 9.0 innings giving up 1 ER on 6 H.

Having said all that, without Villanueva's bullpen excellence during the early part of 2007, we don't get off to a 24-10 start. So the question for Villanueva isn't so much whether or not he can handle starting. The question is whether or not the Brewers can afford to have him in the rotation and not in the bullpen to get the team out of jams. I think, especially this year after Melvin revamped the bullpen with a lot of new, veteran faces, that Villanueva ought to take his proper place in the starting rotation. Give him the ball 33 times and let's see what he can do with it.

FINAL THOUGHTS
So, to sum it all up, here's how I break this down, assuming no trades and everyone stays as healthy as they are now to open the season:

Starters - Ben Sheets, Jeff Suppan, Yovani Gallardo (DL), Carlos Villanueva, Dave Bush, Manny Parra (while Gallardo is out)
Relievers - Claudio Vargas
To AAA - Chris Capuano, Manny Parra (once Gallardo comes back)

I've made my points under each pitcher, so you know how I feel. I'll say, though, that I think Cappy has the best chance to get his head screwed back on straight down in AAA. He'll regain his confidence, and can work through any struggles without costing the Brewers games. We lost the division by 2 games last year, folks. If Cappy does better in just three of those 22 appearances, we would've been beating the Diamondbacks in the first round of the playoffs. I think Capuano can still pitch in this league, but he needs some time to work through a couple of issues first. Besides...how many teams can say that their first-man-up is a former 18 game winner?

By: Big Rygg

Same drill...

• Yovani Gallardo or Carlos Villanueva / Milwaukee Brewers
• Rich Hill / Chicago Cubs
• Matt Belisle / Cincinnati Reds
• Brandon Backe / Houston Astros
• Paul Maholm / Pittsburgh Pirates
• Joel Piñeiro / St. Louis Cardinals

Question: They have Carlos Villanueva listed as the Brewers #3 right now because of the injury to Yovani Gallardo. I think we all know, however, that if he was healthy, Yo would be the #3. So, my question is...do we do this ranking with Gallardo as the #3 and Villanueva as the #4? Or go with how the website has it?

I say Gallardo, but I leave it up to you. Post your opinion, and I can change the list to have whomever we select.

by South Side Rob

Again, these are being taken from depth charts that we found on ESPN's site. I'm changing the Brewers #2 from Dave Bush to Jeff Suppan. All the other teams' #2 pitchers appear to be correct. Please rank your best to worst.

• Jeff Suppan / Milwaukee Brewers
• Ted Lilly / Chicago Cubs
• Bronson Arroyo / Cincinnati Reds
• Wandy Rodriguez / Houston Astros
• Ian Snell / Pittsburgh Pirates
• Braden Looper / St. Louis Cardinals

by South Side Rob

I was going to ask people to rank the entire starting rotation of teams in the NL Central but it was suggested to also break it down to #1, #2, #3 etc... type-starters. So, with that in mind, here are the staff's #1 pitchers. Rank them best to worst according to how you think they will perform for their teams. This order is NOT my rank its just the order I've been using since we started. I will post my own thoughts like everybody else.

• Ben Sheets / Milwaukee Brewers
• Carlos Zambrano / Chicago Cubs
• Aaron Hurang / Cincinnati Reds
• Roy Oswalt / Houston Astros
• Tom Gorzelanny / Pittsburgh Pirates
• Adam Wainwright / St. Louis Cardinals (Chris Carpenter is out until after the All-Star break)

There you go. Would would you want 1st to pitcher for your team?

By: Big Rygg

A lot has been made in the last couple of days about Prince Fielder's comments to the media regarding his contract renewal for the 2008 baseball fiscal year. There are several ways to look at this issue, some of which I'll spell out with comments. What I'd like you to do, is tell me where your thoughts lie (even if it's somewhere not in a way that I listed) and explain why.

It would be nice, of course, if Fielder could share the attitudes of the other two players that were renewed this year (and actually his own public attitude prior to 2007) in that it's all part of the business, and you have to respect how the Brewers have decided to handle it because it's their situation to handle. Oh, and the "no hard feelings" aspect shared by Corey Hart and Ryan Braun wouldn't hurt either.

• Prince needs to shut the **** up
  • This line of thought is characterized by two schools of thought. First, that all players are overpaid crybabies that should just bite their tongues because they are being paid a TON of money to play a game. Second, and perhaps more appropriate to the Prince Fielder situation, is that the Milwaukee Brewers (read: Doug Melvin) have a system in place that treats everybody the same. It takes emotion, personalities, allegiances, etc out of the equation and increases a non-arbitration-eligible player's salary a certain predetermined amount per year. Melvin has said that they always use it and it's the way they do things. Therefore, Prince doesn't deserve special treatment so he needs to hush.
• Prince doesn't deserve more money
  • This thought process baffles me, but I'm sure there are some out there that would think Fielder hasn't done enough to warrant any increase in salary.
• Prince may deserve more, but he should know that he won't get more in 2008, and (more importantly?) should understand why he won't
  • It's the same system that all of his teammates are under (assuming they didn't sign any special long-term contracts) so he should understand the team's position. If they break the mold for him, where does it stop? They need to stay consistent. The pay scale is what the pay scale is.
• Prince is the type of player that you break the mold for
  • You pay your premiere player enough to keep him happy, regardless of what a pay scale says. Fielder needs to be happy, period.
• The Brewers should scrap their tried and true system because all it does it keep salaries low and tick off the star players; Prince Fielder should have been where that trend was bucked
  
  • Plainly and simply, the Brewers spend more money now than when Doug Melvin was hired and installed this pay scale system. They can afford to spend more money because they are making more money and because they have an ownership group headed up by a man who understands the concept of spending money to make money. Who better to kick off the next era than Prince "I just hit 50 home runs and I'm only 23 years old" Fielder? The real danger here is that once the current system is scrapped, anybody who has been paid prior might feel put off by the fact that they weren't special enough to change the way things were done, and they missed out on some money. The other danger is that payroll gets pretty high pretty fast, especially with the amount of young talent both on the team currently and in the minors.

So, Brewer Nation...what are your thoughts?