Brewer Nation SPS '08: Cincinnati Reds

By: Big Rygg

Cincinnati Reds
 2007 Record: 72-90
5th place in the NL Central

2007 Review

The Cincinnati Reds were the victims of some of the worst bullpen play in the Major Leagues in 2007. I'll have to look up the stat to be sure, but I believe they lost an exorbitant amount of games that they were leading or ahead in the 7th inning. By "exorbitant", I mean that they lead the league. Their bullpen totaled 31 losses on the season but contributed to plenty more. It's kind of hard for your offense to come back if your bullpen continues to allow extra runs to score.

As for the rotation, Aaron Harang was once again very good, and while Bronso Arroyo's W-L record looks poor, it belies his overall effectiveness as well. He pitched very well in a lot of games, but kept himself in a bit too long in a lot of cases, figuring (probably correctly) that himself on empty was better than the majority of their bullpen with full tanks. That cost him some losses, but his overall ERA was only one-half run higher than Harang's. Arroyo compiled a 9-15 record in 2007. Harang's record? 16-6.

Offensively, the Reds were second only to the Milwaukee Brewers in total team home runs in 2007. They had seven different hitters belt at least 16 home runs, three of them hitting 30+. In fact, the trio of RF Ken Griffey, LF Adam Dunn and 2B Brandon Phillips accounted for 100 total home runs.

The biggest issue, of course, when you're basically only offense is that you can't always score more than they do.

Their biggest winning streak of the year was five games for the Reds, and their longest losing streak (like the Pirates) came late in September but totaled 7 games. They lost two of those late season games to the Cubs, also doing nothing in the way of assisting Milwaukee's efforts to pick itself back up after allowing the Cubs to overtake them.

The Reds finished with a meaningless victory on the last day of the season, bringing their drop off from 2006's finish to a total of 8 fewer wins.

Comings and Goings

The biggest acquisition by the Reds in the off-season is inarguable. When the Reds outbid Milwaukee to acquire 40-save closer Francisco Cordero, they could have just gotten themselves 10 more wins without breaking a sweat. I'll talk more about Cordero in my X-Factor section below, because he truly is. For now, however:

The Rest of the Additions...

Jeremy Affeldt - RP
Paul Bako - C
Josh Fogg - SP
Corey Patterson - OF
Andy Phillips - 1B
Edinson Volquez - SP
Craig Wilson - OF

Those that left:

Jorge Cantu - UTIL
Jason Ellison - OF
Eddie Guardado - RP
Josh Hamilton - OF
Eric Milton - SP
Kirk Saarloos - RP
*Several minor league free agents also left the organization*

25 Man Roster

Click here to see the Reds' 25 Man Roster. This will save space and reading time if you don't care.

Potential Starters

Here's the way I see the starting eight and five-man rotation as of opening day this season. This is not in batting order by any means.

C - David Ross
1B - Scott Hatteberg (though Joey Votto will get the majority of the playing time, I think)
2B - Brandon Phillips
3B - Edwin Encarnacion
SS - Alex Gonzalez
LF - Adam Dunn
CF - Corey Patterson
RF - Ken Griffey Jr.
P - Aaron Harang
P - Bronson Arroyo
P - Johnny Cueto
P - Josh Fogg
P - Edinson Volquez

Extras on Players

Keep an eye on Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez this year. These are two young starters (Cueto from the Reds' own system and Volquez having come over from the Rangers in the off-season trade involving Josh Hamilton) that have fairly solid "stuff". Obviously, starting pitching is important, but these two guys could have a major influence on things. If they have start effectively and help keep the bullpen fresh on their own days, they'll not only help Harang and Arroyo feel more comfortable about exiting the game when they're tired, but they may allow for a bit more confidence by the other 23 men on the roster. Perhaps the mood will change from "we've got a chance two days in a row and then we need to pray for a half-week" to "let's score some runs and see if we can win more often than we lose".

It'll be a culture change in Cincinnati, but the bottom line is that if Dusty Baker doesn't make them throw their arms off, they've both supposedly got the stuff to give that idea a run for it's money.

X-Factor

As I mentioned, the X-Factor for the 2008 Cincinnati Reds (and quite probably the 2009, 2010 and 2011 Cincinnati Reds) is closer Francisco Cordero.

Yes, the Reds brought in another guy with closing experience in the person of Jeremy Affeldt, and while he'll most likely support the 8th inning and primarily man the 7th, the only way that any of it matters is weather or not the Reds' bullpen can lock down games. The Cordero signing allows for that.

By moving effective if not spectacular closer (33 saves in 38 chances in '07) to a setup role, the Reds believe that they can consistently get the ball to Cordero. If they're going to have a shot at really increasing their win total, they can only hope that their beliefs are well-founded.

Then again, Cordero's record at Great American Ballpark last year? 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA, 2.10 WHIP and a .429 batting average against. Granted, that was against the Reds' potent lineup, but there are plenty of strong offenses that Cordero will have to face at home this year.

2008 Predictions

Record: 81-81

I gave the Reds probably too much credit during last year's predictions, and I believe that they were hampered by not only a terrible bullpen but probably a little bit of bad luck as well. That being said, there are a lot of question marks this year. I believe the Cueto and Volquez have the talent to stay competative all season (barring injury, of course), but that doesn't mean that the rest of the league will believe that assessment.

I also do fully believe that for at least this season Francisco Cordero will be a big boost to the Reds' win total. I'll reassess year by year, of course, but this year shouldn't be a problem for him...if he can get his ERA under control in all parks not named Miller, that is.
 

Final Thoughts

I know that a lot of pundits have picked the Reds to finish 2nd in the NL Central behind the Chicago Cubs and in front of the Milwaukee Brewers. Personally? I don't see how that works. I think that the Reds will finish 3rd (maybe 4th depending on the Astros). I'm no "professional" at any of this by any means, but how does two or three significant changes warrant the 17-game increase that SI.com has they pegged for, for example?

Cincinnati should be improved, but in my opinion they won't be as improved as some want to think. Give this rotation a couple of years (assuming Baker doesn't blow out the new young pair of arms that he has been handed...see Wood, Kerry and Prior, Mark) and maybe they'll compete for the division crown once again. But in 2008? Sorry Cincy. It's just not gonna happen.

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Agree/Disagree? As always, feel encouraged to leave comments.