Picking the Brewers' Starting Rotation

By: Big Rygg

Normally, I would wait and do my analysis of the Brewers' rotation when I do the entire team preview. (Yes, by the way, I will be doing a team-by-team analysis of every team in the NL Central once again. Look for those to start next week sometime, probably late in the week.) However, all of this ranking that we've been doing, and the fact that there is an open competition on the Brewers this year makes we want to tackle in on it's own in a special blog.

Welcome to said special blog.

Let's get the formalities out of the way: Ben Sheets will start on Opening Day, March 31st, against the hated Chicago Scrubs in the dump that is Wrigley Field. It's not even worth going there, even "just to see it once before it falls down and/or they change the name", until the ivy is green and filled in. Even then, it's a stretch...but I digress.

Sheets will start Opening Day, Jeff Suppan will throw in Game 2 on April 2nd, and (if he was healthy) Yovani Gallardo would handle Game 3 on the 3rd of April. Now, having said all that, this is where it becomes muddied in Ned Yost's eyes.

On the Brewers' 40-man roster, there are eight (8) starters to fit into five (5) slots in the rotation. In case any Scrub fans read this blog, 8-5=3 (you know, just 97 less than the # of years it's been since your team won a World Series). That match means that three starters won't be in the rotation. Further math indicates that 5-2=3. The three in that equation accounts for Sheets and Suppan (I would've done 5-3 = 2, but Gallardo will probably start the season on the 15-Day DL).

So, putting it all together means that there are really five pitchers vying for three spots right now. These pitchers, in alphabetical order by last name are:

• Dave Bush
• Chris Capuano
• Manny Parra
• Claudio Vargas
• Carlos Villanueva

Allow me to analyze each player and tell you whether or not I believe that they should be in the rotation and also whether or not I believe that they will be in the rotation. As we all should know by now, should and will are too VERY different words to Ned Yost.

DAVE BUSH - 2007 Record: 12-10, 186.1 IP, 5.12 ERA
One of the best ways to discuss Dave Bush is to start with his K/BB ratio of 134/44 and to mention that he led the team in strikeouts as well.

I'll put this into some perspective for you. Carlos Villanueva (while doing most of his pitching from the bullpen) threw 72(!) fewer innings than Bush, and still walked 9 more batters than Bush did. Sure, if Ben Sheets had the innings, he probably would've eclipsed Bush in strikeouts, but Sheets is the Ace of the staff...Bush was the #4 man last year to start off with. Bottom line, Bush throws strikes.

What Bush also does, unfortunately, is tend to have one bad inning in a given start. His M.O. is that he struggles in his first inning of work. This is supported by the fact that Bush had an 8.13 ERA in his first inning of his 31 starts. He gave up 48 hits in those 31 innings along with 7 of his walks for a 1st inning WHIP of 1.77. His overall WHIP on the year? Only 1.40. Still a bit above where you'd like a pitcher, but you can see how his first inning woes skewed his numbers a little.

But therein lies the quandary with one David Thomas Bush: How do you get him through the first inning unscathed? And can he be an effective contributor a rotation if he exerts so much energy in so early in the game? For back-to-back seasons of 12 wins and the potential for more this year (especially against other teams' fifth starters), I say he deserves a shot.

CHRIS CAPUANO - 2007: 5-12, 150 IP, 5.10 ERA
Chris Capuano is a former All-Star. Chris Capuano is a former 18 game winner. Chris Capuano might not have a place on the Brewer roster in 2008, let alone in the rotation.

Ned Yost has made it abundantly clear that if two pitchers do similar jobs in Spring Training this year, then past performance and successes could be the deciding factor in who gets a starting gig. Well, while we all know that Capuano didn't have much success in 2007 overall, we also know that he did start out 5-0 before having a liner back at him apparently mess with his head again like it did in the second half of the 2006 season. (Note: Cappy had a liner hit off his leg today in a game against the Seattle Mariners. He wound up giving up 5 unearned runs in his 4 innings of work. Not sure how many came after the liner, but I'd like to find out.)

When Chris Capuano won 18 games in 2005, and then only won 11 in 2006, his overall numbers were very similar:

2005 - 18-12, 3.99 ERA, 219.0 IP, 176 K
2006 - 11-12, 4.03 ERA, 221.0 IP, 174 K

In fact, in 2006, he actually gave up 44 fewer walks than in 2005, while also giving up less home runs (29 to 31).

Make no mistake about it. Cappy had all the run support you could ask for in 2005, and not nearly as much in 2006. Of course there were other situations that affected his win total too, but the bottom line is that the two years, Cappy was extremely consistent.

But that takes us to 2007. Cappy started off white-hot, blistering the opposition to the tune of five wins in seven starts, and an ERA sitting at a stellar 2.31. Over the course of his next three starts, he gave up 4, 6 and 4 ER each in 4.0, 5.1 and 4.0 IP. He lost all three games. In fact, Capuano wouldn't win another game all year, appearing 22 consecutive times in games which the Brewers lost. That number too, however, doesn't completely tell the story.

Cappy's 11th and 12th starts of the season were quality starts of 7.0 IP and 2 ER in each. He even struck out 10 in his June 2nd start against the Florida Marlins. His offense, on the contrary, 1 and 2 runs in those starts. For the record, after Capuano's 7th start of the year, he went four straight starts in which the Brewer offense mustered one run each. That's not supporting your pitcher very well at all.

But, as we move on to 2008, Capuano still appears stuck in a bit of his '07 rut. His first appearance in Spring Training produced a 9.00 ERA thanks to 2 ER in his 2 IP. Appearance #2 was worse, with Cappy giving up 6 ER in just 2.0 IP. And today's outing, Cappy gave up another 5 runs (though be they unearned) in just 3.2 IP.

With the harsh numbers in 2007 aside, is what Cappy is doing now in Spring Training going to be enough to get him a job in the starting rotation? No. Can he turn it around this millennium? Absolutely, but he needs to relax a little and just let it come. I think he got so frustrated at all the 22-appearances-in-Brewer-losses talk in the media that he's pressing right now, trying too hard to be perfect. In all fairness, I haven't seen him pitch this year yet, but to hear/read that he starts off okay and then blows up in his last inning of work, it's either the pressing theory, or Capuano might need to get his head in the game. If he knows he's coming out at a certain time, maybe he loses focus. I do remember him saying on more than one occasion last year that he lost focus during a game.

And if he doesn't make the rotation (which he's doing a fine job of pitching himself out of), he's basically useless in the bullpen. In his four appearances out of the 'pen last year, he pitched a total of 15.0 innings, allowing 17 H and 7 ER. That ERA is actually better than his full-season ERA, but do note that in those 15.0 IP, he served up 5 HR. That's just not acceptable out of your bullpen if you're going to be a championship caliber team.

MANNY PARRA - 2007 MLB Stats: 0-1, 26.1 IP, 3.76 ERA
A former 26th round draft pick by the Brewers in 2001, Manny Parra is a southpaw, strikeout pitcher with pretty darn good stuff. He is getting to the majors as late as he is (if you can count 25 years old as being late) because of some injuries.

Parra was promoted to AA Huntsville back in 2004. He went on the DL in 2005 with a shoulder injury which required arthroscopic surgery. Prior to going on the disabled list that season, he went 5-6 with a 3.96 ERA. In his five wins, he had 0.82 ERA. He also struck out 10 batters twice that year. 2006 for Parra started back with single A Brevard County, before eventually re-earning his promotion to Huntsville. He combined for a 4-3 record with a 2.93 ERA, going 3-0 with a 2.87 in six AA starts.

All that, of course, was building to 2007. He started the year in Huntsville, eventually earning a promotion to AAA Nashville. He responded to that increased level of competition by twirling a perfect game on June 25th in just his second AAA start. He was promoted to the majors on July 16th, making his first appearance on the 20th of that month. While with the big club, he threw 26.1 innings and recorded 26 strikeouts.

His 2007 season was cut short when he broke his thumb on a bunt attempt against Chicago, but by then he had begun proving that he could handle big league hitters. So far this spring, all Parra has done is amass a 1.00 ERA in 9 innings. He's struck out 8, walked only 1 and given up a total of 4 hits. The one run he did give up was a solo home run to A's slugger Jack Cust.

So, to reiterate a couple of points, Manny Parra strikes hitters out, doesn't give up many walks or hits, throws left-handed and is only 25 years old. Sounds like a lock for the rotation, right? Well, not so fast.

The issues probably preventing Parra's ascension to the Yost's rotation are two-fold. First, he only pitched 133 total innings last year between Double-A, Triple-A and Milwaukee. If he's in the rotation from day one, and stays there the whole year, he'll throw close to (if not over) 200 innings. That is a huge jump in innings and pitches for a guy with a surgically repaired throwing shoulder. It's probably best to gradually bring him along.

Second, and this isn't a fair reason if you're Manny Parra, but he has minor league options left. In order to properly protect the starting rotation in Milwaukee, you need a solid backup in AAA should one of your guys go down with an injury. Parra has options, and can most easily be sent to lead Nashville's rotation.

But wait...if he's so good, why wouldn't you want him in the big leagues? He'll pitch the same number of innings in a AAA start that he would in a MLB start, so how is that protecting him? Valid questions. Keep in mind, however, that in AAA it's easier to limit innings or to give a guy an extra day off, plus the competition is lesser. That means, hopefully, fewer pitches per inning than if he were with Milwaukee, thereby lessening the number of times he has to wind up and deliver.

Personally, I'd like to see Parra break camp in the rotation to cover Yovani Gallardo's spot until Gallardo is ready to come back from his knee injury. I think Parra gives us a better chance to win then the other men I think should be the odd one's out, so he should start those games in Gallardo's stead. He'll probably be coming up to Milwaukee later in the season even if he did start the year in AAA, so by starting him in Milwaukee first, you aren't wasting an option. But even if you were, he still gives the best chance to win those couple of starts that Gallardo is probably going to miss.

CLAUDIO VARGAS - 2007: 11-6, 134.1 IP, 5.09 ERA
I can't remember how many times Brian Anderson rightfully implied that Claudio Vargas was akin to legendary magician and escape artist Harry Houdini, but every time it was mentioned was right on. Vargas got into a lot of trouble in 2007, but always seemed to get out of it, leading to the comparison.

The other thing Vargas always seemed to do (usually a result of pitching into and then out of trouble) was have huge pitch counts early. This is why, while it's easier to quantify in our minds with innings pitched, a true measure of how much a pitcher has worked is pitch count.

Claudio Vargas threw a lot of pitches. In fact, Vargas threw so many pitches so often that he only pitched more than 5.0 innings in an appearance only 12 times all year, going over 6.0 IP only twice. He had only nine (9) "Quality Starts", in which he earned five (5) of his victories.

Like Chris Capuano in 2005, Vargas was the recipient of a lot of run support last year. Only once did the offense fail to score more than two (2) runs in a game, with 15 games of at least five (5) runs scored by the Brewers, including four double-digit run totals and two more in which they scored nine (9) runs! In June alone, a month where Vargas won all five of his starts, the team put up backing scores of 7, 9, 11, 7, 11 runs respectively.

What Vargas lacked in long starts and low pitch counts, he usually made up for with his ability to keep the team in games. Only five (5) times all year did he give up more than four (4) earned runs. And to get 11 wins and only six (6) losses from your #5 pitcher...almost any team in the majors would take that.

I've been saying for some time now that Claudio Vargas is the most tradeable commodity in our glut of starting pitching. Yes he can overwork a bullpen, but 11 wins is nothing to sneeze at, even if some serious run support took place in a lot of those wins.

I still believe that GM Doug Melvin will pull the trigger on a deal prior to the end of Spring Training, and I still think that it's probably Vargas that will get the most attention next to Dave Bush. I also still think that Vargas is the best option to keep in the bullpen out of these five starters. He pitches to contact, gets guys out and bears down when he's in a jam. He would be an above average long-man, with the chance to maybe come into the game in a jam-type situation if the rest of the bullpen has been overused.

Of course, muddying the waters on all of this was when Vargas decided to toss five hitless innings at the Seattle Mariners on March 9th. Save for one walk, it was five perfect innings. After a performance like that, one would have to think Vargas is making it even harder on Ned Yost to pick his rotation.

CARLOS VILLANUEVA - 2007: 8-5, 114.1 IP, 3.94 ERA
What couldn't Carlos Villanueva do for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2007? He began the year in Spring Training 2007 by pitching his way into the bullpen. He was good enough that he could have started, but having his five guys already set, Yost still decided that he needed Villanueva and sent him to the big league bullpen. This was after Villanueva made a two-level jump during 2006, starting games for Milwaukee after never having pitched higher than AA before.

Villanueva appeared in 59 games in 2007, only 6 of them being starts. No matter how you slice it, those 59 appearances were mostly positive. He could start a game, come in for one out, throw 4.0 innings in relief, make an emergency start the day after the Brewers were no-hit by Justin Verlander, pitch back-to-back days more than once, get a three-inning save in a blowout in Arizona...he was truly the definition of jack-of-all-trades for the 2007 Milwaukee Brewers. The thing was, all of his trades were pretty good.

Villanueva will tell you that he prefers starting, but will do whatever the club wants him to do (including starting the year in the AAA rotation to ensure depth, a la Manny Parra). The numbers back up Villanueva's assertion about a starting gig. In his six starts, he threw 35.0 innings, giving up only 8 ER for an ERA of 2.06! All he's done this spring in starter-like atmospheres is toss 9.0 innings giving up 1 ER on 6 H.

Having said all that, without Villanueva's bullpen excellence during the early part of 2007, we don't get off to a 24-10 start. So the question for Villanueva isn't so much whether or not he can handle starting. The question is whether or not the Brewers can afford to have him in the rotation and not in the bullpen to get the team out of jams. I think, especially this year after Melvin revamped the bullpen with a lot of new, veteran faces, that Villanueva ought to take his proper place in the starting rotation. Give him the ball 33 times and let's see what he can do with it.

FINAL THOUGHTS
So, to sum it all up, here's how I break this down, assuming no trades and everyone stays as healthy as they are now to open the season:

Starters - Ben Sheets, Jeff Suppan, Yovani Gallardo (DL), Carlos Villanueva, Dave Bush, Manny Parra (while Gallardo is out)
Relievers - Claudio Vargas
To AAA - Chris Capuano, Manny Parra (once Gallardo comes back)

I've made my points under each pitcher, so you know how I feel. I'll say, though, that I think Cappy has the best chance to get his head screwed back on straight down in AAA. He'll regain his confidence, and can work through any struggles without costing the Brewers games. We lost the division by 2 games last year, folks. If Cappy does better in just three of those 22 appearances, we would've been beating the Diamondbacks in the first round of the playoffs. I think Capuano can still pitch in this league, but he needs some time to work through a couple of issues first. Besides...how many teams can say that their first-man-up is a former 18 game winner?