GUEST COMMENTARY BY: Adam Rygg

(Ben Margot/AP) Jackson took the win in this one, going 5+ IP, allowing only one run (thanks to Rick Helling)…

Let me get this out of the way…I was wrong.

There, that felt good. Wait, that felt GREAT! I love being wrong when the opposite of what the number indicate will happen benefits the Brewers.

I’m referencing, of course, Bill Hall.

Let’s review what I said about Billy in yesterday’s series preview. Go ahead and read it below…I’ve got time to wait……

We ended up not needed the runs, but Hall’s 3 run homer off of Schmidt in the sixth inning was HUGE! Not only did it give us a lead we would not relinquish, but it also looked a lot bigger when the Giants loaded the bases (okay, let’s be honest…Zach Jackson loaded the bases for the Giants) in the bottom of the sixth with no outs.

In my defense, Hall was 0/2 to that point off of Schmidt, including a weak ground ball to Pedro Felíz at 3rd when Prince Fielder was standing on 3rd with only 1 out. Man on third, less than two outs…you’ve got to get that runner home. Also, it was nice to see that Ned Yost crunched the numbers and realized that while Billy had to play defense, he shouldn’t be expected to produce much in the way of hits and he batted Hall 7th (like my statistical analysis suggested he should). When Hall came up in the 6th in the same situation, and then got an 0-2 count on him, I was nervous; I was expecting the same end result. He fought his way back into the count and absolutely smoked a changeup into the left field bleachers.

Color me impressed.

Now then, moving along to the pitching matchup. Allow me to congratulate Zach Jackson on finally getting through 5 innings with very few problems. Nice work by the youngster. I also would like to commend Ned Yost here again. When Jackson had issues in the third inning, it was not a "Mike-Maddux-pat-on-the-back" trip to the mound that I expected to see. I got to see my team’s manager, the skipper, the man in charge of play on the field walk to that mound and give Jackson the type of talking to he needed. A Maddux calm-me-down special was not what was needed there. A Yost trust-your-stuff-and-throw-a-strike chat is what Jackson required.

Also masterful was Yost’s handling of the top of the sixth inning. Granted, it was just obvious enough to get noticed, but it was also the type of move that you couldn’t tell for sure what Yost would do. Having Helling warming up when Jackson’s spot in the batting order was coming up not only allows for Yost to pinch-hit for Jackson if he wants to, but also makes Felipe Alou have to wonder if Yost would do that. If so, you can just intentionally walk Mike Rivera (who I am liking more and more, and am that much more chagrined that we didn’t call him up sooner) to get to Jackson. It worked out two-fold when Jackson needed relief in the bottom of the sixth, because Helling didn’t need as long to get warm.

Speaking of Rick Helling, how clutch was that performance out of the bullpen? Bases-loaded, nobody out, 5-1 lead. Pop-out, shallow fly ball, strike out. ABSOLUTELY HUGE!!!!

Let’s look at the other side of our coin then: Jason Schmidt.

The Giants’ ace was more like a 4 of clubs on this day. He got through 4 innings cleanly and quickly. The Brewers barely did anything against him until the 5th, and then the big 6th inning proved the deciding factor.

Schmidt took the loss, falling to 6-6. His ERA rose up over 3.00 for the first time since May 20th, settling at 3.06 when the Crew was done knocking him around the bay.

Finally, I’d like to take a look at the rest of our hitters, and also analyze whether or not my pick to click paid off.

I already mentioned Mike Rivera, but didn’t say that he went 1/2 with 2 BB, 2 R, 2 RBI including a HR. Also, how about blocking the plate and not allowing the Giants to get the early lead in the ballgame? Nice work.

Jenkins only did go 1/5, which is more like what we can expect against Schmidt, but Carlos Lee chipped in two doubles and the Prince went 3/4 with a double.

And my key player, Jeff Cirillo……

Not only did ‘Rillo go 2/3 with a walk and run scored, but did you see that sweet 5-6-4 double play he started off of Schmidt’s bunt? Pure poetry. Kudos to Hall for realizing a pitcher was running down the first base line and getting the relay off cleanly. Kudos too to Rickie Weeks for picking that relay off.

Game 2 tonight @ 9:15pm CDT!

I leave you with this (rough) quote from Major League 2 (starring Bob Uecker):

James Gammon as Lou Brown "We won today. If we win tomorrow, that’s two in a row. If we win the next day, that’s called a winning streak. It has happened before."

GUEST COMMENTARY BY: Adam Rygg

 

      (45-48)     @    (46-46)
After salvaging one game out of the Diamondbacks series, the Crew is still on the road and in the Bay Area tonight to take out the San Francisco Giants in our 2nd series with them in 2006. We feature our rookie tonight, a guy just off the DL tomorrow, and our resident "crafty" lefty on Wednesday. Let’s take a look at the pitching matchups before delving into the offense.

PITCHING MATCHUPS
Tonight:
Zach Jackson
1-2, 5.94 ERA

Loser of two straight starts, Zach "Action" Jackson is on the hill tonight for the Brewers. He wasn’t even in the big leagues when we faced the Giants back in May, so obviously none of the Giants’ hitters have seen him in person.

He has a unique windup that can looking like he’s very uncontrolled to someone seeing him for the first time. On the contrary, he tends to have good control as evidenced by his total of three walks in the month of June, spanning five starts. His control has been a bit of an issue of late, lending itself to the young left-hander’s two straight losses. He has walked seven over the past 10 innings. Being a guy that pitches to contact anyway and tends to give up a decent amount of hits, adding an extra seven baserunners for free certainly does not help him win ballgames.

His last three starts have seen him average 5.1 IP and 99 pitches thrown. That’s a ratio that must swing in the other direction for Jackson to continue on as a starter when both Tomo Ohka and Ben Sheets return to the rotation . Chances are solid that he’ll either be sent to the bullpen or, more likely, back down to continue to start and gain experience at AAA Nashville.

His opponent for tonight’s game…

Jason Schmidt
6-5, 2.78 ERA

San Francisco’s resident ace has been the victim of poor run support. Let’s just get that stated right now. The five losses on his record belie his talent and how much he has rebounded this season after fighting off "dead-arm" much of last year.

True, Schmidt has lost his last three decisions after winning three straight starts, but only on 6/17 against the Mariners did he really pitch poorly. Add to that the fact that Schmidt is a true strikeout pitcher, along with how often the Brewers seem to swing and miss, and it is truly the makings of a long night out west.

Schmidt also has some good history against Milwaukee. In fact, he is the only starter that we’ll see this series that we saw earlier in the year. That’s not good news, necessarily. His line from that start at Miller Park on 5/3:

9.0 IP, 5 H, 7 K, 0 R, 112 pitches (76 strikes) Here’s the wrap up of that game.

Yes, folks…he shut us out. In another example of when he faced a team for the second time this year (granted in back to back starts, but still…), he threw back to back double digit strikeout totals against the Florida Marlins. 10 in just 5.2 IP on 5/31 and a team-record-tying 16(!!) on 6/6 in a complete game.

Let’s hope for a reversal of fortune tonight, as the second game seems VERY winnable and Game 3 is due for a karmic fall back to reality for San Fran’s starter.

Speaking of which (excellent segue, if I do say so myself)…

Game 2 – Tuesday Night @ 9:15pm (CDT)

On the hill for the Brewers…

Tomo Ohka
2-1, 3.18 ERA

Admittedly, I’ve overlooked Tomo Ohka’s consistent pitching. He was the one person that I wasn’t looking forward to watching his starts this season. I am man enough to admit that I was wrong. I now yearn for a Tomo Ohka Special (7.0 IP, < 3 ER). It will be a nice boost to the club when Ohka is ready to go. Tuesday is the day slotted for his return to the rotation, and the club sorely needs him and his business-like approach to taking the mound.

Let’s look past the obviousness of experience, and take a gander at a sometimes overlooked aspect of Ohka’s game. He’s right-handed.

I know, I know. That shouldn’t mean much, but Dave Bush has been the only right-hander in our rotation for quite some time. Rick Helling‘s "starts" count as starts in title only. They were worthless. Carlos Villanueva didn’t have enough starts to make a dent. Chris Capuano, Doug Davis, Jackson, Dana Eveland…all lefties. It helps, even a little, to have a hitter have to rethink his approach once or twice during a series. I predict having Ohka back will help Davis’ start on Wednesday since the Giants won’t have just seen three lefties in a row.

I’ll reserve final judgment for now until I see how Ohka looks tomorrow. He did just come off of a lengthy DL stint. Let’s just hope he gets back to form sooner rather than later. On the year, though, he’s given up only 12 ER in 34 IP.

It’s a good opponent for him to regain his Major League level confidence against as well. The Brewers should be able to give him some run support in his first start back as he is facing off against…

Jamey Wright
5-8, 5.06 ERA

Wright has taken losses in five straight decisions, with the other three starts in that span not being worth celebrating either. Wright hasn’t had a "quality" start (6 or more IP, coupled with 3 or less ER) since 6/13. Wright’s WHIP is 1.45, and he has given up 11 HR in just 110.1 IP.

Bottom line, he is VERY hittable. The Brewers just have to take advantage of that fact, and not be hungover if Schmidt ends up dominating them tonight.

And in line for Wednesday afternoon’s bout…

Game 3 – Wednesday @ 2:35pm (CDT)

Doug Davis
5-6, 4.77 ERA

6.0 IP and 2 R (1 ER) should be enough to get Doug Davis a win. Unfortunately, as was talked about in the Diamondbacks series review (two posts below), it was not. The Brewers scored three runs to support Davis, but the bullpen couldn’t bring Davis’ record back to even.

My theory has held true so far (even though we’re only two starts into July). Davis had one horrible outing this month and then came back with a very solid outing. He only struck out two, but more importantly he only walked three. Two starts ago, he walked six, and we all saw how well that worked out for him a
gainst the Cubs.

Davis has always had the stuff to be a solid #3/borderline #2 in the majors…when his control is there. He’ll have to maintain that control on Wednesday when he faces a very hot pitcher in…

Matt Morris
8-7, 4.23 ERA

Just prior to his start a touch over one month ago, Matt Morris had a 3-7 record and has just lost his third straight decison, and 7th of his last eight. His ERA was still at 5.13 after having topped out at 6.20 back on 5/12.

But then, Morris apparently remembered that he knows how to pitch. Beginning with his start on 6/15 @ Arizona, he has won five straight decisions out of six total starts. His ERA has dropped almost a full run and would be even lower had he not had a little hiccup on his one no decision (6.0 IP, 5 ER). In his last start, he only needed 69 pitches (55 strikes) to make it through 6.0 IP and set himself in line for the win.

Streaks like this can’t last forever, and how about the Milwaukee Brewers be the team to put an end to it? We stopped Philadelphia’s early season cruise control and were even the only loss in a long string of San Diego Padre victories earlier in the year as well.

Matt Morris cannot stay this untouchable forever. I think Wednesday is as good a time as any for another, slightly bigger, hiccup.

OFFENSIVE ANALYSIS

The men that will be taking it to the three Giants righties are (in positional numerical order):

C – Damian Miller (probably Mike Rivera on Wednesday)
1B – Prince Fielder
2B – Rickie Weeks
3B – Jeff Cirillo
SS – Bill Hall
LF – Carlos Lee
CF – Gabe Gross (maybe Brady Clark gets a start, but I doubt it)
RF – Geoff Jenkins

I’d try to put them into a batting order lineup, but your guess is as good as mine when Nutty Ned is filling out the lineup card. Here is one key player in each pitching matchup…

Monday Night vs. Jason Schmidt – Jeff Cirillo. ‘Rillo has a lifetime .412 BA against the Giants’ ace, going 7-17 with a double and 2 K. ‘Rillo will probably bat in the two-hole and hopefully will set the table nicely for the probable following of Jenkins-Lee-Fielder. By the way, Jenks is a lifetime .250 hitter off of Schmidt, (5/20), but he is 3/4 this season.

Tuesday Night vs. Jamey Wright – Can we call it Cirillo back to back? He has eight hits in 22 at-bats against Wright for a .364 clip, including 2 doubles, 1 triple, 1 Homerun, 2 stolen bases and 2 RBI. Again, likely batting second in the order could prove huge for the Crew.

Wednesday Night vs. Matt Morris. Cirillo’s 1-9 lifetime against Morris won’t get it done here, so we look to Carlos Lee. His 4-6 with a double and an RBI against Morris is a nice, if small sampling.

Let’s just talk briefly then about a guy that should be getting two days off if it were possible. Bill Hall.

Not only has he been struggling since before the All-Star break, but lifetime, he is 0/10 with 5 K against Schmidt, and 2/12 with 4 K against Morris. He is 2/5 against Wright, but still, if ever there was a time to miss J.J. Hardy, this series might be it.

I hope, although doubt, that Yost at least has seen these #’s himself and bats Hall no higher than 7th against Schmidt and Morris, maybe even giving Chris Barnwell a start on Wednesday. Miller’s #’s are nothing to shout about either against those two, but they’re better than Hall’s. Gross has only had one AB against any of the pitchers, going 0/1 against Schmidt. Maybe ignorance is bliss and Gross can hit 6th (R-L-R-L-R, etc be damned!) and have some success. Most likely, though, we’ll see Hall hit sixth and kill at least two rallies this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS

This is a winnable series no matter when Schmidt does to us. Jackson has been good enough to believe that he can hold his own against San Francisco’s "offense". There is a reason that Schmidt has to deal with the 5th lowest run support in the league, after all.

A sweep is conceivable, and 2 out of 3 is a must. I don’t want to see the Brewers slide hard and fast here which would only result in our shipping Carlos Lee out for much less than he’s worth. If we deal Lee, and get anything in return less than a #2 pitcher or #3 pitcher + everyday hitter, we got hosed. I trust in Melvin’s ability to handle trades, especially big ones *COUGH* Richie Sexson *COUGH*, but that doesn’t mean that I want to see him forced into making another one.

And representing the Milwaukee Brewers….

GUEST COMMENTARY BY: Adam Rygg

Let’s see….Chris Capuano (DNP, Manager’s Decision)
Carlos Lee – 0/1, Last out of the game, no defensive put-outs, but a couple of relays back to the infield after ground balls got through and one spectation of a groundrule double. Didn’t get in until the 8th inning when he defensively replaced Jason Bay.

Now then, the star of the game for Milwaukee’s concern anyway…..

DERRICK "D-BOW" TURNBOW!

Line: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 0 ER, 1 GIDP

Milwaukee Brewer closer Derrick Turnbow pitched a near spotless 7th inning for the NL squad. It went like this.

Paul Konerko
Pitch 1: Fastball, inside half of the plate, for a strike
Pitch 2: Slider in the dirt, Konerko tried to check his swing, but couldn’t. Strike 2.
Pitch 3: Slider, low and outside. Ball 1.
Pitch 4: Slider, hit foul. 1 and 2 to Konerko.
Pitch 5: Fastball, high and tight. Ball 2.
Pitch 6: Fastball, high. Ball 3.
Pitch 7: 96 MPH Fastball, single to right-center.

Troy Glaus
Pitch 1: Fastball, outside. Ball 1.
Pitch 2: Fastball, fouled straight back. Strike 1.
Pitch 3: Low, over the outside corner. Ball 2.
Pitch 4: Swinging strike at pitch low and outside. Strike 2.
Pitch 5: 96 MPH fastball. 5 (Wright) – 4 (Sanchez) – 3 (Howard) double-play!

2 outs, nobody on.

Michael Young
Pitch 1: 97 MPH fastball, low and outside. Ball 1.
Pitch 2: Fly-out to right field.

3 up, 3 down (even if not right away).

By the way, I need to apologize to Century 21. Yes, their name was all over the Derby yesterday, and they pointed it out on signs tonight, but at least they’re sponsoring the whole game/event. You know what ticked me off tonight? The sponsorship of the DOUBLE PLAY!!!

Yes, you read the correctly. If your ears are bleeding, it’s because your brain tried too hard to wrap around that concept. Any double play was a Pepcid Complete Double Play because Pepcid is a double play combination of both fast and long-lasting relief from heartburn.

Allow me to quote the late, great Chris Farley by saying… "La dee frickin’ dah!!"

How could I possibly care less about that?

So, sorry Century 21. At least you sponsored something worth sponsoring.

Getting back to the game itself, I’m even more impressed with Turnbow’s handing of reiging batting champion Michael Young, by the way, after seeing what Young did to Hoffman in the 9th.

All three outs were grounders back to the mound for Hoffman. It’s just a shame that he gave up, in succession, a single, double and triple in between outs two and three.

Other game notes:

Oh yeah, the American League team won….again….for the 9th time in 10 years. They won 3-2 thanks to Hoffman’s meltdown.

Also, A.J. Pierzynski (no, I don’t care whether or not I spelled that correctly) didn’t get into the game. Which is fitting, because he shouldn’t have been on the team in the first place.

GUEST COMMENTARY BY: Adam Rygg

A few months ago, I posted the Starting Pitching in the NL Central. Using last year’s numbers, I put all the projected starters for this year in 3 groups (Quality, Average, and Shaky). After 3 weeks of baseball plus last night’s games, I’ve compiled the starting pitchers in the NL Central so far this year. In 3 more weeks, we’ll take another look at this list to see if players can move up, down, or settle in where they currently stand. I’m using my pitching index to rate the players.

                                                            Quality Starters